VO: Decades of research and technology for better forecasting of the when, where
and how intense a hurricane will be? But what if we could
predict a disease outbreak in the wake of a storm? That's the question
some researchers asked about cholera in Haiti in the aftermath of Hurricane
Matthew. Cholera is a water-borne infectious disease that
occurs when a person ingests food or water contaminated with the Vibrio
bacterium. Cholera causes severe diarrhea, nausea,
vomiting and dehydration and can lead to death if untreated.
Researchers estimate that hundreds of thousands of cases are reported each year
worldwide. Colwell: The bacterium is found in
world oceans globally, especially
in the temperate regions and in the tropics. So in the
countries less developed with
infrastructure that is not the equivalent, let's say, of Europe or the
United States or Canada, then the population
that has to rely on river water or pond water
is at risk for cholera. VO: In addition to water insecurity,
high seasonal temperatures followed by extreme rainfall,
concentrated populations and a natural disaster
are all conditions conducive to a cholera epidemic. This was
the case for Haiti in 2010. Colwell: The data that we were able to
pull together showed that in 2010
it was the hottest summer in fifty years. And then as if
that weren't enough, there was a hurricane that skirted
the island, but it dumped the heaviest rainfall
in fifty years. Jutla: We tried to make an algorithm
in a cohesive form to determine the risk. And then that basically
provided us with the first clues on the risk of outbreak of cholera
in Haiti after this earthquake.
Then we used the same algorithm
with improved satellite datasets from Global
Precipitation Measurement mission after Hurricane Matthew struck
that region again. And we were
able to, in real time, predict the risk of cholera infection in human
population at least four weeks in advance.
We did the same thing for Yemen. We knew there was a mass movement of
human population due to civil unrest in that part of the world, and then we had
very heavy precipitation. And then we immediately started
monitoring conditions. And that basically converged to give us a
risk on where and when this disease will
lock in on human population. Colwell: I think we can predict and prevent
and I'd like to see that happen very quickly, in the next three to
five years, and I'd like to see the satellite system
to be part of the regular public health tools so that
we can do prediction as well as the
tracking of epidemics that's done traditionally now.
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