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It’s always a challenge to predict each year how much Arctic sea ice

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coverage might change with the seasons. Now we have a new tool

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to make the summer forecast for sea ice minimums just a little bit better.

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NASA scientists can make a reasonable estimate of September’s

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sea ice extent as early as this March, with the predictions getting more reliable everyday.

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This new forecasting model

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uses real-time NASA satellite data of Arctic sea ice melt,

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so the predictions improve through late spring and early summer

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as they incorporate more information about the state of sea ice melt

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and distribution of open water across the Arctic Ocean.

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Although most forecast models focus on predicting the extent of sea ice

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across the entire Arctic, this model also produces reliable forecasts

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of sea ice in specific regions, like the seas north of Alaska,

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crucial information for people living in and moving through the region.

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Arctic sea ice plays an important role in regulating the planet’s climate,

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so predictions of sea ice extent can help us better

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understand how global temperatures might change.

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Scientists can continue to train the model based on historical observations.

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In just a few weeks, the model will begin producing forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent

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for the coming September and will continue making improvements,

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as the annual sea ice minimum extent gets closer.

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