WEBVTT FILE

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>> MICHELLE: Hello
and welcome to

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NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center.

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Today we're going
to talk about

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one of the most compelling
issues of our day,

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sea level rise.

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And with me is
Dr. Tom Wagner,

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the Program Scientist for the
cryosphere at NASA headquarters.

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>> TOM WAGNER: And today,
we're going to take you

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right behind the frontlines
of sea level rise research,

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out into the field
with the researchers,

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and here's what we're
going to be talking about

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for the next hour.

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♪[Music]♪

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>> TOM WAGNER:
So the big thing is this.

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Around the world,
sea level is rising.

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It's going up by three
millimeters a year.

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In the last 20 years it's
gone up by three inches.

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And, we're trying to
understand kind of why that is.

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But more importantly,
we're trying to project out,

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you know, where it's going to
be in the next hundred years.

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Like it or not,

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already the East Coast of
the US is seeing flooding

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from sea level rise.

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It's things like
the big storms

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that hit New York and
New Jersey, Katrina.

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But even in places like
the Kennedy Space Center,

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we're seeing tremendous
amounts of erosion.

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They've gone as far
as to make a map

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of areas that they
are going to lose.

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The City of Miami is
getting routine flooding.

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Now, you might say,

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"Well, you know, three inches in
20 years. what's the big deal?"

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We can probably deal with
what we've already seen, right?

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But you know, the thing
that we're worried about

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is that as you project
out a hundred years,

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it could be more like three
feet, four feet, five feet,

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and the way that society
responds to that,

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the costs rise exponentially.

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>> MICHELLE: And
one of the things

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we're going to talk a
lot about today is ice,

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and talk to us about
why ice is so important

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in the topic of
sea level rise.

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>> TOM WAGNER:
Yeah. So in general,

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the rise that we're seeing
today comes from two places.

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One, as the
ocean warms up,

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it expands just like
hot air in a balloon.

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But also, two,
the big ice sheets,

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the glaciers of Greenland
and... of Greenland...

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the glaciers of
Canada and Alaska,

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the big ice sheets of
Greenland and Antarctica,

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they are waking up and
spitting ice into the ocean

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and that's the other
half of sea level rise.

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>> MICHELLE: And so, we're going
to be bringing in Josh Willis

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from the
Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

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And then we also
have Vena Chu

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who is at the University
of California, Berkeley.

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And I believe
that's Larry Smith

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from the University of
California, Los Angeles.

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Well, sea level
has been rising pretty steadily

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in the last 23 years
around the globe,

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and we've been measuring
this with Satellite Altimeters

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with our colleagues in the
French Space Agency, CNES,

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ever since 1992.

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And the net rate
of sea level rise

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is about three
millimeters per year,

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which works out to
about an inch a decade.

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And, it's interesting because
the rise isn't equal everywhere.

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In fact, in places like the
West Coast of the United States,

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sea level has actually
been falling very slightly,

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and this is because of the
natural cycles in the ocean

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and the way the oceans and
winds can push heat around

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and redistribute it
across the planet.

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So sea level rise is
actually not all that level.

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>> TOM WAGNER:
Yeah, but Josh, like,

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but... overwhelmingly, right?

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The total amount of sea
level rise that we've seen,

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say, in the 28th century
versus the last 20 years,

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what's it like?

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Sea
levels have increased.

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The rate of rise has
increased incredibly

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in the last hundred
years or so.

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In the early 1900s

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we were looking at about
one millimeter per year.

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In the 1950s it was more like
two millimeters per year,

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and now it's three
millimeters per year.

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And, in fact, if you
look back even farther,

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the last 2,000 years

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have had almost no
sea level rise whatsoever.

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So we've pushed the Earth
into a brand-new regime

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and sea level rise
is now the norm.

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>> TOM WAGNER: Can you tell
us a little bit, though?

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And I know Michelle was asking
about this before we started.

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How do we actually
get to those numbers?

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Like you were talking about,

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how do we know
what sea level rise was

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in the 1800s or the 1700s?

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I mean today, you've pointed out
we have this radar altimeters

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that measure the
height of the ocean,

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but what are the
other ways we know?

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Well, we've
had tide gauge records

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for 150 years,

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in a few places,
even longer.

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But in the
last 2,000 years

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we've actually been keeping
a record of sea level rise

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in the sediments in places
like North Carolina.

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There's a salt marsh there

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and it turns out that the land
there is steadily sinking,

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just very slightly.

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And as the water
creeps up the land,

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it leaves behind a record

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in the form of tiny
little bugs and critters,

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uh, that die and live
in the sediment.

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So, uh, people drilling
sediment cores

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have actually been
able to reconstruct

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a very accurate sea level record
for the last 2,000 years.

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And, what it shows is not
much until the last 150,

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and that's when sea level
rise really took off

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and we began to see the
rates we have today.

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>> MICHELLE:
Now, one of the things

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I think people aren't aware of

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is just how many
resources NASA has

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to study what's
changing on the Earth.

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Uh, I think that right now

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there are actually about
19 different space crafts

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that are orbiting the Earth

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taking readings
from everything

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about the oceans, the land,
and the atmosphere.

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What are some of the missions
that you specifically work with

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and... and what are some
of the data that you take?

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Well, the
best mission of all those

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is the Jason Missions,
in my humble opinion,

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because those are the
ones that I work on.

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But, uh, I think,
uh there's...

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as you say, there is a
whole bunch of missions.

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The Jason Missions

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measures sea level
directly from space,

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uh, missions like GRACE

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actually weigh the continents
and the oceans.

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>> MICHELLE: Yeah, that's
really excellent stuff,

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you know, and the GRACE
Mission that you mentioned

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is one of the things that
I find really compelling

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that, in fact,
there's so much water

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melting off these glaciers,

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it's actually changing the
gravity field of the Earth.

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I mean, could you tell
us a little bit about

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how GRACE works and how
that measurement is made?

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Yeah,
GRACE is really fun.

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Uh, in fact, um, it's
made of two satellites.

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Uh, they are named
Tom and Jerry

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and they chase
each other around,

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and whenever the first one
goes over something heavy,

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the pull of gravity causes
it to speed up just slightly.

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And the two satellites
actually measure

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the distance
between each other

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and you can use that
information to infer the mass

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of the thing
you're flying over.

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>> TOM WAGNER: Hey, Josh!
I got a question yesterday

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from a reporter.

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Can you just talk
a little bit about,

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okay, look, the radar
altimetry, the record we get

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and how we see things
like tide gauge,

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how do they work and how
does that all come together?

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>> JOSH WILLIS:
Yeah, well, uh,

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so the satellites that measure
sea level are really amazing.

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They're 800 miles up

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and they can measure
the level of the ocean

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in a... in about a
six-mile footprint

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with an accuracy of
just one inch or better.

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>> JOSH WILLIS: So it's an
incredibly accurate

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piece of equipment.

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Um it measures the entire
planet once every ten days.

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And by averaging all
of that data together,

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we can actually,

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uh, get an estimate of the
total level of the ocean,

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the total volume
of the ocean,

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with an accuracy of
about half a centimeter,

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so it's really tiny.

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And they're really incredibly,
accurate at these missions.

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In fact,

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we've often compared
them with tide gauges.

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So in a few key locations,

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we have tide gauges

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that have been running for the
entire 23-year long record

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and they've allowed us to
help, tie together

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one satellite after another.

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We've also been lucky enough
to have each satellite survive

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until the next
one was launched.

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So beginning with
TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992,

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uh, and then continuing
with Jason-1 in 2001

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and Jason-2 in 2008,

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and we're hopeful to
launch Jason-3

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sometime in the next six months,
something like that.

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Uh, and so, we're
really excited

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about our record
of sea level rise

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because, uh, it's one of the
most accurate means we have

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for charting,

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how humans are changing
the overall climate,

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on the planet.

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>> JOSH WILLIS: Because
if you think about it,

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the Earth is two-thirds ocean.

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>> TOM WAGNER: Great!
Hey, thank you very much

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and I know we're going to have
you back later in the show.

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But coming up next,
Michelle,

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I think we have a video?

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>> MICHELLE: Well, yes. In fact,

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we're going to be
speaking to a scientist

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that actually
does research

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sponsored by the NSF
in Greenland.

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So if we can roll
the video about

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Mike Bevis and
his work, please!

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>> MIKE BEVIS:
Yeah, this is the...

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this is the champion, uh,
glacier of Greenland.

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This is Jakobshavn,

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so this is the one that's
losing the most mass.

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It's losing so much mass
you can see it in space,

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they can see
gravity change.

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The loss of the mass is
causing gravity to change.

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Yeah, we've got instruments
all over the place

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but this is going to be one
of our most important ones.

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There's the antenna,
and it's bolted to the rock.

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So this ice is the...
is the weight

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holding the elastic
Earth down.

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As that weight is released
by the loss of ice,

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the ground is rising,
that antenna is rising.

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>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER:
And you can measure that?

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>> MIKE BEVIS:
We can measure that.

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That's recording
data 24 hours a day,

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year after year after year.

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>> TOM WAGNER: Hey! So one
of the other things too is,

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how do we take this kind of
measurement you've made here,

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with literally a GPS device

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out in the field
banged into the rock?

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How do you combine that
with satellite information

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to get a big picture?

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>> MIKE BEVIS:
All the satellite...

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all the techniques have got the
strengths and the weaknesses.

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Uh so there is... for example,

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GRACE is incredibly precise,

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it can measure a
tiny change in mass,

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but it's not always
sure what that mass is.

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It could be the mass of
the rock is changing

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if you've got
post-glacial rebound

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or it could be the ice
or some combination.

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00:10:32.932 --> 00:10:35.068
>> MIKE BEVIS:
So in that case,

245
00:10:35.068 --> 00:10:36.970
uh, you have to
make a correction

246
00:10:36.970 --> 00:10:39.239
for what the vertical
movement of the ground is

247
00:10:39.239 --> 00:10:41.541
so you're not spoofed
by a rock change

248
00:10:41.541 --> 00:10:43.276
rather than an ice change.

249
00:10:43.276 --> 00:10:44.878
It turns out
that correction

250
00:10:44.878 --> 00:10:46.546
is about the same
size as the answer.

251
00:10:46.546 --> 00:10:48.348
So if you get the
correction wrong,

252
00:10:48.348 --> 00:10:51.117
you start to get errors
in you answer.

253
00:10:51.117 --> 00:10:52.585
So GPS can help with that

254
00:10:52.585 --> 00:10:54.988
because this is going to
sense both elastic rebound

255
00:10:54.988 --> 00:10:57.190
and the slower
viscous rebound.

256
00:10:57.190 --> 00:11:00.126
And in general, you want to
combine different instruments

257
00:11:00.126 --> 00:11:03.530
so that each instrument is
compensating with its strengths

258
00:11:03.530 --> 00:11:05.832
for the weaknesses of
the other instruments.

259
00:11:05.832 --> 00:11:06.699
>> MICHELLE:
And this is something

260
00:11:06.699 --> 00:11:08.167
that I think most people
don't think about,

261
00:11:08.167 --> 00:11:10.737
the fact that the Earth,
you know, solid land itself

262
00:11:10.737 --> 00:11:12.305
is actually elastic,

263
00:11:12.305 --> 00:11:14.741
but as the ice melts
it's rebounding.

264
00:11:14.741 --> 00:11:16.042
>> MIKE BEVIS:
Yeah, like for example,

265
00:11:16.042 --> 00:11:19.145
I first realized this,
uh, in a big way

266
00:11:19.145 --> 00:11:21.114
when we were looking
at GPS stations

267
00:11:21.114 --> 00:11:22.882
in the Central Amazon basin.

268
00:11:22.882 --> 00:11:25.485
We noticed that these stations
were going up and down

269
00:11:25.485 --> 00:11:27.954
like 16 millimeters
every year.

270
00:11:27.954 --> 00:11:29.189
And then... and
then we looked at

271
00:11:29.189 --> 00:11:30.590
the height of
the Amazon River

272
00:11:30.590 --> 00:11:32.725
and we saw that as the
river was going up

273
00:11:32.725 --> 00:11:33.960
the ground was
going down,

274
00:11:33.960 --> 00:11:36.296
as the river went down
the ground was going up.

275
00:11:36.296 --> 00:11:38.264
It was just the
weight of the water

276
00:11:38.264 --> 00:11:40.900
deflecting the
surface downwards.

277
00:11:40.900 --> 00:11:41.834
>> TOM WAGNER: You've got...
how many stations

278
00:11:41.834 --> 00:11:43.303
do you have in
around Greenland?

279
00:11:43.303 --> 00:11:44.571
>> MIKE BEVIS:
We have 50 in Greenland.

280
00:11:44.571 --> 00:11:47.907
We have a similar number
in West Antarctica.

281
00:11:47.907 --> 00:11:49.776
>> TOM WAGNER: Wow!
And any fascinating results

282
00:11:49.776 --> 00:11:50.510
from any of those
stations particularly?

283
00:11:50.510 --> 00:11:51.344
>> MIKE BEVIS:
Yeah there's a lot,

284
00:11:51.344 --> 00:11:53.346
I mean, for example,
you see the places

285
00:11:53.346 --> 00:11:54.514
where people already knew

286
00:11:54.514 --> 00:11:55.982
is the
major ice loss

287
00:11:55.982 --> 00:11:58.484
like the Jakobshavn glacier
or Thwaites glacier,

288
00:11:58.484 --> 00:12:01.287
there is where you also see
the ground rising the fastest.

289
00:12:01.287 --> 00:12:04.123
One of the interesting
things is we see that,

290
00:12:04.123 --> 00:12:06.893
almost everywhere
it's accelerating.

291
00:12:06.893 --> 00:12:10.096
So for in Jakobshavn
it was rising about

292
00:12:10.096 --> 00:12:12.599
12 millimeters
a year in 2008.

293
00:12:12.599 --> 00:12:14.601
By the end of 2012,

294
00:12:14.601 --> 00:12:17.370
it was going up like 32,
33 millimeters a year.

295
00:12:17.370 --> 00:12:20.306
>> TOM WAGNER: The ground is
coming up 33 millimeters a year.

296
00:12:20.306 --> 00:12:22.242
>> MIKE BEVIS: Yeah,
more than an inch a year

297
00:12:22.242 --> 00:12:25.044
just because of the release
of the weight of the ice.

298
00:12:25.044 --> 00:12:26.012
>> MICHELLE: Wow!

299
00:12:26.012 --> 00:12:26.879
>> TOM WAGNER:
Hey, now, is it hard...

300
00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:29.115
it must be pretty tough
to put these stations in,

301
00:12:29.115 --> 00:12:30.583
in the Polar Regions.

302
00:12:30.583 --> 00:12:31.384
>> MIKE BEVIS:
It's challenging

303
00:12:31.384 --> 00:12:34.287
because they've got
to run all year, right?

304
00:12:34.287 --> 00:12:37.824
And so, for a large part
of the year, the winter,

305
00:12:37.824 --> 00:12:39.359
there is no sun,

306
00:12:39.359 --> 00:12:43.096
and so, you have to charge
up huge banks of batteries

307
00:12:43.096 --> 00:12:44.464
so you can get
through the night.

308
00:12:44.464 --> 00:12:47.100
So these are very large,
heavy systems.

309
00:12:47.100 --> 00:12:50.103
I think we spent like $2
million on helicopter fees

310
00:12:50.103 --> 00:12:51.971
just to install G-NET.

311
00:12:51.971 --> 00:12:53.773
Uh all this weight goes in

312
00:12:53.773 --> 00:12:55.241
and then... and then, you...

313
00:12:55.241 --> 00:12:58.044
the sun charges those
batteries all summer long

314
00:12:58.044 --> 00:12:59.679
and then you can run
all through the winter

315
00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:01.748
and send the data
out via satellites.

316
00:13:01.748 --> 00:13:03.716
>> TOM WAGNER: God! Amazing!

317
00:13:03.716 --> 00:13:05.785
>> MICHELLE:
Now, the Earth rebounding,

318
00:13:05.785 --> 00:13:08.321
actually sort of bounding up
after the weight gets taken off,

319
00:13:08.321 --> 00:13:09.622
it must go very slowly.

320
00:13:09.622 --> 00:13:11.791
This isn't something that
just happens immediately.

321
00:13:11.791 --> 00:13:13.960
Is there also something
about the history of the ice

322
00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:16.329
and how the ice has changed
that's in your data as well?

323
00:13:16.329 --> 00:13:17.530
>> MIKE BEVIS: Yeah,
there are actually two...

324
00:13:17.530 --> 00:13:19.198
two ways the Earth behaves.

325
00:13:19.198 --> 00:13:20.600
There's an
elastic response,

326
00:13:20.600 --> 00:13:21.901
which is literally
instantaneous.

327
00:13:21.901 --> 00:13:25.405
So as you lose the ice, there's
an instantaneous adjustment.

328
00:13:25.405 --> 00:13:27.407
But then the Earth
also behaves viscously.

329
00:13:27.407 --> 00:13:31.844
It will flow away from a...
a stress like a weight.

330
00:13:31.844 --> 00:13:34.180
And that's... in
most of the world,

331
00:13:34.180 --> 00:13:37.583
that takes 10,000 years,
say, to happen.

332
00:13:37.583 --> 00:13:42.422
So the ground all around
Fennoscandia is rising now,

333
00:13:42.422 --> 00:13:43.990
not because of
what's happening now,

334
00:13:43.990 --> 00:13:47.126
but because what happened
12.000 years ago

335
00:13:47.126 --> 00:13:48.828
when the ice suddenly
disappeared.

336
00:13:48.828 --> 00:13:49.762
>> TOM WAGNER: God, amazing!

337
00:13:49.762 --> 00:13:51.864
Hey, Mike, thank you very,
very much for joining us.

338
00:13:51.864 --> 00:13:53.333
We really appreciate
you coming in.

339
00:13:53.333 --> 00:13:55.301
>> MICHELLE: Now we're going
to take a really close look

340
00:13:55.301 --> 00:13:57.537
at what's going
on inside the ice.

341
00:13:57.537 --> 00:13:58.738
And, we're going to start

342
00:13:58.738 --> 00:14:00.406
by looking at the
very surface of the ice

343
00:14:00.406 --> 00:14:02.308
because that's where a lot
of the melt is happening.

344
00:14:08.981 --> 00:14:10.249
>> NARRATOR: A short
helicopter flight

345
00:14:10.249 --> 00:14:12.251
from the edge of the
Greenland ice sheet

346
00:14:12.251 --> 00:14:15.088
lies a 27-square mile
network of streams

347
00:14:15.088 --> 00:14:18.024
draining the surface of the
ice as it melts in the sun.

348
00:14:20.660 --> 00:14:22.862
This summer, an
interdisciplinary team

349
00:14:22.862 --> 00:14:24.130
of NASA-funded researchers

350
00:14:24.130 --> 00:14:26.532
set up a camp near the
end of that network,

351
00:14:26.532 --> 00:14:29.469
where a large melt pond
emptied into an outlet stream,

352
00:14:29.469 --> 00:14:31.704
which then, a few
hundred meters later,

353
00:14:31.704 --> 00:14:33.473
disappeared under
a snow bridge

354
00:14:33.473 --> 00:14:36.075
and into a stunning
and dangerous moulin,

355
00:14:36.075 --> 00:14:38.377
a hole in the ice
leading far below.

356
00:14:43.583 --> 00:14:45.885
The team had many tools
at their disposal

357
00:14:45.885 --> 00:14:47.920
including drones
to map the area

358
00:14:47.920 --> 00:14:50.523
and provide a comparison
for satellite measurements.

359
00:14:53.426 --> 00:14:56.195
They also employed what was
essentially a boogie board

360
00:14:56.195 --> 00:14:57.964
mounted with a
Doppler instrument

361
00:14:57.964 --> 00:15:00.600
measuring the depth of the river
and the speed of its flow.

362
00:15:01.601 --> 00:15:02.735
Working in shifts,

363
00:15:02.735 --> 00:15:05.304
they conducted 72 straight
hours of measurements

364
00:15:05.304 --> 00:15:08.441
across the stream.

365
00:15:08.441 --> 00:15:11.944
They also made a series of short
helicopter flights upstream

366
00:15:11.944 --> 00:15:14.480
and placed floating sensors
into three tributaries

367
00:15:14.480 --> 00:15:16.716
to measure the
water as it moved.

368
00:15:41.707 --> 00:15:42.842
About an hour later,

369
00:15:42.842 --> 00:15:45.111
the team was thrilled to
see all three drifters

370
00:15:45.111 --> 00:15:47.713
pass by their camp within
a matter of minutes,

371
00:15:47.713 --> 00:15:50.683
presumably relaying a
few last observations

372
00:15:50.683 --> 00:15:52.752
before disappearing
into the moulin.

373
00:16:02.929 --> 00:16:04.363
But measuring
meltwater runoff

374
00:16:04.363 --> 00:16:06.299
was only part of the effort.

375
00:16:06.299 --> 00:16:09.202
Other researchers joined the
team to measure the albedo

376
00:16:09.202 --> 00:16:11.971
or the brightness of the snow
and ice in the region.

377
00:16:13.406 --> 00:16:14.807
This albedo determines

378
00:16:14.807 --> 00:16:17.310
how much of the sun's
energy will be absorbed,

379
00:16:17.310 --> 00:16:19.946
and therefore, how fast
the surface will melt.

380
00:16:22.081 --> 00:16:23.349
From helicopters,

381
00:16:23.349 --> 00:16:25.952
researchers measured
incoming solar radiation

382
00:16:25.952 --> 00:16:28.554
and compared it to the
light reflected by the ice.

383
00:16:29.889 --> 00:16:32.758
They also imaged the ice
using a digital camera,

384
00:16:32.758 --> 00:16:35.394
creating these beautiful
high-resolution mosaics

385
00:16:35.394 --> 00:16:38.297
to better map the region.

386
00:16:38.297 --> 00:16:40.366
After a short but
intense field season,

387
00:16:40.366 --> 00:16:43.002
the researchers packed up
camp and left the ice.

388
00:16:43.002 --> 00:16:44.904
Hopeful that the data
they'd acquired

389
00:16:44.904 --> 00:16:46.606
could help shed
light on the future

390
00:16:46.606 --> 00:16:49.075
of the Greenland ice sheet.

391
00:16:49.075 --> 00:16:51.244
>> MICHELLE: Now, we're going to
go to some of our colleagues,

392
00:16:51.244 --> 00:16:53.412
who are actually out at the
Jet Propulsion Laboratory today

393
00:16:53.412 --> 00:16:54.814
and we're going to
talk to Larry Smith

394
00:16:54.814 --> 00:16:56.816
from the University of
California, Los Angeles

395
00:16:56.816 --> 00:16:59.552
and Vena Chu from the University
of California, Berkeley.

396
00:16:59.552 --> 00:17:01.554
And Tom, maybe you can ask
them about the research.

397
00:17:01.554 --> 00:17:02.421
>> TOM WAGNER:
Hey, Larry and Vena,

398
00:17:02.421 --> 00:17:03.689
thanks for joining us today.

399
00:17:03.689 --> 00:17:04.757
I don't know if
you could see it

400
00:17:04.757 --> 00:17:06.759
but we just showed some video
of you guys out in the field.

401
00:17:06.759 --> 00:17:09.161
Can you tell us a little bit
about your field network

402
00:17:09.161 --> 00:17:10.663
and what it is that
you're measuring?

403
00:17:12.765 --> 00:17:14.300
>> LARRY SMITH:
Sure, absolutely.

404
00:17:14.300 --> 00:17:18.271
Our project focuses on the
hydrology of the surface,

405
00:17:18.271 --> 00:17:21.007
the melting surface of
the Greenland ice sheet,

406
00:17:21.007 --> 00:17:24.877
and this is a surprisingly
little-studied field

407
00:17:24.877 --> 00:17:27.313
in Glaciology for this
part of the world,

408
00:17:27.313 --> 00:17:30.182
but it's an important
one for society

409
00:17:30.182 --> 00:17:31.417
and for sea level rise

410
00:17:31.417 --> 00:17:34.086
because, already,

411
00:17:34.086 --> 00:17:36.622
melting of the surface of
the Greenland ice sheet

412
00:17:36.622 --> 00:17:39.792
is thought to contribute
about half to two-thirds

413
00:17:39.792 --> 00:17:42.094
of the total mass loss
from Greenland

414
00:17:42.094 --> 00:17:45.097
as measured by GRACE,
for example,

415
00:17:45.097 --> 00:17:49.135
with the remainder being
from solid ice calving losses.

416
00:17:49.135 --> 00:17:50.269
But the...

417
00:17:50.269 --> 00:17:53.372
these predictions are
very often based on,

418
00:17:53.372 --> 00:17:54.874
regional climate models

419
00:17:54.874 --> 00:17:57.043
and so what our measurements
are attempting to do

420
00:17:57.043 --> 00:17:58.844
is to provide
some of the first,

421
00:17:58.844 --> 00:18:01.047
real-world
"in situ" measurements

422
00:18:01.047 --> 00:18:02.214
of meltwater production

423
00:18:02.214 --> 00:18:04.383
and runoff on the
surface of the ice sheets

424
00:18:04.383 --> 00:18:08.287
to try to verify and validate
these model predictions

425
00:18:08.287 --> 00:18:10.289
of future sea level rise.

426
00:18:10.289 --> 00:18:11.257
>> TOM WAGNER: Hey, now, Vena,

427
00:18:11.257 --> 00:18:12.825
you're one of the purple
that goes out in the field

428
00:18:12.825 --> 00:18:16.495
and does all the
hard work, right?

429
00:18:16.495 --> 00:18:17.797
>> VENA CHU: Yeah, I've
been going there for

430
00:18:17.797 --> 00:18:19.198
about eight years now.
Yeah, a lot of field time.

431
00:18:19.198 --> 00:18:20.733
>> TOM WAGNER: So tell us
about some of the gear

432
00:18:20.733 --> 00:18:22.234
you take into the field

433
00:18:22.234 --> 00:18:26.305
and what kind of measurements
you actually make?

434
00:18:26.305 --> 00:18:28.741
>> VENA CHU: Well the first goal
is just to get the camp set up

435
00:18:28.741 --> 00:18:31.877
so we have multiple tents
and all our camping gear.

436
00:18:31.877 --> 00:18:34.780
But we also have, uh, we
are measuring discharge,

437
00:18:34.780 --> 00:18:37.917
so the actual amount of water
going through these rivers.

438
00:18:37.917 --> 00:18:40.519
So we have a sort of
like boogie board set up

439
00:18:40.519 --> 00:18:42.521
that we take
across the river.

440
00:18:42.521 --> 00:18:44.390
It's a sort of
a Doppler system

441
00:18:44.390 --> 00:18:46.158
that measures how the
fast the water is flowing

442
00:18:46.158 --> 00:18:47.927
and how deep the
water is flowing.

443
00:18:47.927 --> 00:18:50.196
>> TOM WAGNER: Yeah. So what
I can't get over, though,

444
00:18:50.196 --> 00:18:51.731
it seems like you guys
are also talking about,

445
00:18:51.731 --> 00:18:53.933
it seems like there has
been a big increase recently

446
00:18:53.933 --> 00:18:55.501
in the amount of
melting that's gone on

447
00:18:55.501 --> 00:18:57.303
on the surface of Greenland,

448
00:18:57.303 --> 00:18:59.038
and tell us about that,

449
00:18:59.038 --> 00:19:00.473
tell us kind of
what you're seeing?

450
00:19:00.473 --> 00:19:02.508
I know that some of the
rivers flow pretty fast.

451
00:19:02.508 --> 00:19:03.576
>> LARRY SMITH: Sure.

452
00:19:03.576 --> 00:19:05.745
The satellite
record shows that,

453
00:19:05.745 --> 00:19:09.682
while bumpy with warmer years
and cooler years, in general,

454
00:19:09.682 --> 00:19:15.955
the overall trend has been an
increasing extent, intensity,

455
00:19:15.955 --> 00:19:19.592
and duration of the melt season
on the surface of the ice.

456
00:19:19.592 --> 00:19:22.428
But these course
resolution satellites

457
00:19:22.428 --> 00:19:24.330
are often microwave-based,

458
00:19:24.330 --> 00:19:28.901
don't have the,
the granularity

459
00:19:28.901 --> 00:19:31.804
to see the fine-scale structures
and physical processes

460
00:19:31.804 --> 00:19:35.574
that are routing this
water off the ice sheet.

461
00:19:35.574 --> 00:19:37.276
And this is actually
very important

462
00:19:37.276 --> 00:19:39.345
because one of the
key questions is,

463
00:19:39.345 --> 00:19:42.715
how much of that melt on
the surface of the ice,

464
00:19:42.715 --> 00:19:45.818
particularly as it expands
deeper into the interior,

465
00:19:45.818 --> 00:19:49.488
how much of that melt water is
actually escaping the ice sheet

466
00:19:49.488 --> 00:19:51.357
to contribute to
sea level rise?

467
00:19:51.357 --> 00:19:54.927
At the moment, our assumption
is that all of it does.

468
00:19:54.927 --> 00:19:56.996
But in fact, it's
entirely plausible

469
00:19:56.996 --> 00:19:58.164
that perhaps some of it...

470
00:19:58.164 --> 00:20:01.667
some fraction of it,
is retained by the ice sheet,

471
00:20:01.667 --> 00:20:04.904
refrozen at the surface or
stored within the ice sheet.

472
00:20:04.904 --> 00:20:07.306
And that's why these
field measurements

473
00:20:07.306 --> 00:20:09.608
and also higher-resolution
satellite

474
00:20:09.608 --> 00:20:12.511
and airborne technologies such
as Operation IceBridge,

475
00:20:12.511 --> 00:20:15.247
such as the WorldViews, uh,
series of satellites,

476
00:20:15.247 --> 00:20:18.584
these provide additional
finer-scale resolution

477
00:20:18.584 --> 00:20:20.419
to study these processes

478
00:20:20.419 --> 00:20:22.788
and confirm that indeed
this melt on the surface

479
00:20:22.788 --> 00:20:25.124
is escaping the ice sheet
to the global ocean.

480
00:20:25.124 --> 00:20:26.092
>> TOM WAGNER: Thanks!
Hey, Michelle,

481
00:20:26.092 --> 00:20:28.194
I understand we might
have some video?

482
00:20:28.194 --> 00:20:29.829
>> MICHELLE: That's right. We
actually have some video about

483
00:20:29.829 --> 00:20:32.865
what it's like to work in these
pretty extreme conditions.

484
00:20:32.865 --> 00:20:33.999
>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER:
This is the best time!

485
00:20:33.999 --> 00:20:36.469
How lucky are we to come
up here in Greenland!

486
00:20:36.469 --> 00:20:37.536
>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER:
Something about this place,

487
00:20:37.536 --> 00:20:42.808
uh, gets under our skins
and we keep coming back.

488
00:20:42.808 --> 00:20:43.909
>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER:
You can only reach

489
00:20:43.909 --> 00:20:46.479
this area here with helicopter.

490
00:20:46.479 --> 00:20:48.347
>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: We're
camping in the ablation zone.

491
00:20:48.347 --> 00:20:50.382
It's very wet
as you can see.

492
00:20:50.382 --> 00:20:52.118
>> UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER:
Water is running everywhere.

493
00:20:52.118 --> 00:20:54.253
It's flowing into these
chutes and channels

494
00:20:54.253 --> 00:20:58.023
which are getting bigger and
faster with every second.

495
00:20:58.023 --> 00:21:00.559
If someone... goodness help us

496
00:21:00.559 --> 00:21:02.995
were to ever fall
into one of these,

497
00:21:02.995 --> 00:21:05.731
uh, there would be no hope.

498
00:21:05.731 --> 00:21:07.233
>> ÅSA RENNERMALM: So
we are very careful

499
00:21:07.233 --> 00:21:09.101
with our safety procedures.

500
00:21:09.101 --> 00:21:13.439
The most important here is
that we all come back home.

501
00:21:13.439 --> 00:21:17.443
>> GRACE ANDREWS: It is a
difficult environment to work in

502
00:21:17.443 --> 00:21:19.044
Um, it's cold here.

503
00:21:19.044 --> 00:21:22.815
There are problems
with equipment.

504
00:21:22.815 --> 00:21:24.183
When you have problems
with equipment,

505
00:21:24.183 --> 00:21:27.520
it's hard to get replacements.

506
00:21:27.520 --> 00:21:30.623
It takes weeks to get
things shipped up.

507
00:21:30.623 --> 00:21:32.725
The temperatures,
and in my case,

508
00:21:32.725 --> 00:21:34.260
the sediment load of rivers

509
00:21:34.260 --> 00:21:38.597
makes it hard to actually
do the sample collection.

510
00:21:38.597 --> 00:21:42.835
But it's also the
most inspiring

511
00:21:42.835 --> 00:21:46.305
and thrilling
environment to work in.

512
00:21:46.305 --> 00:21:48.574
Every day I go out
in the fields,

513
00:21:48.574 --> 00:21:52.077
I look around at my environment,

514
00:21:52.077 --> 00:21:55.314
the ice, the river,
how dynamic it is,

515
00:21:55.314 --> 00:21:58.551
and it reminds me
why I'm out there

516
00:21:58.551 --> 00:22:02.888
and I absolutely love it.

517
00:22:02.888 --> 00:22:04.456
>> VENA CHU: One of the
hardest things there is

518
00:22:04.456 --> 00:22:05.958
just working in those
environments.

519
00:22:05.958 --> 00:22:08.427
I mean, the fact is that
we're working in an area

520
00:22:08.427 --> 00:22:10.663
that not many people
work uptil, you know,

521
00:22:10.663 --> 00:22:12.865
in the last five, you know,
six years or so.

522
00:22:12.865 --> 00:22:14.934
People don't really
work on the ice sheet

523
00:22:14.934 --> 00:22:16.802
when it's melting
all around you,

524
00:22:16.802 --> 00:22:18.571
just even camping is hard,

525
00:22:18.571 --> 00:22:21.407
and, you know, we're dealing
with limited helicopter hours.

526
00:22:21.407 --> 00:22:24.410
So if you need more equipment
or something breaks

527
00:22:24.410 --> 00:22:26.779
and, one of the big things
that we dealt with was,

528
00:22:26.779 --> 00:22:28.914
you know, how do we
keep batteries warm

529
00:22:28.914 --> 00:22:31.884
and, uh, how do we set up
camps so that, you know,

530
00:22:31.884 --> 00:22:33.385
rivers aren't
flowing around us

531
00:22:33.385 --> 00:22:36.555
and melting out around our tent.

532
00:22:36.555 --> 00:22:38.224
>> TOM WAGNER: Hey, can
you tell us a little bit

533
00:22:38.224 --> 00:22:40.192
about what happens?

534
00:22:40.192 --> 00:22:41.360
Where does the water go?

535
00:22:41.360 --> 00:22:42.461
We understand a lot
of it doesn't, say,

536
00:22:42.461 --> 00:22:43.996
flow directly off
the ice sheet

537
00:22:43.996 --> 00:22:48.267
but it goes into these
big holes in the ice.

538
00:22:48.267 --> 00:22:50.369
>> VENA CHU: In fact, these
sinkholes are called Moulins.

539
00:22:50.369 --> 00:22:54.073
In fact, what we've seen is
that all the rivers on the ice,

540
00:22:54.073 --> 00:22:56.542
the majority of them actually
go into these sinkholes

541
00:22:56.542 --> 00:22:59.078
rather than forming long rivers
toward the end of the ice.

542
00:22:59.078 --> 00:23:02.948
So we particularly set up these
camps right near these moulins

543
00:23:02.948 --> 00:23:04.216
so we can measure how fast

544
00:23:04.216 --> 00:23:06.318
and how much water
is going into them.

545
00:23:06.318 --> 00:23:07.686
And, like you were
saying before,

546
00:23:07.686 --> 00:23:09.822
the significance
of these moulins

547
00:23:09.822 --> 00:23:10.990
and these sinkholes is that

548
00:23:10.990 --> 00:23:13.993
it takes water into the
bottom of the ice sheet,

549
00:23:13.993 --> 00:23:15.894
and that's where it
can really affect

550
00:23:15.894 --> 00:23:17.997
how fast the ice is flowing.

551
00:23:17.997 --> 00:23:19.665
And, the more
that's melting,

552
00:23:19.665 --> 00:23:22.234
the more water can go inside.

553
00:23:22.234 --> 00:23:23.669
We've seen in some of our,

554
00:23:23.669 --> 00:23:25.971
you know, high-resolution
satellite maps

555
00:23:25.971 --> 00:23:29.108
that there are thousands
of these holes,

556
00:23:29.108 --> 00:23:31.510
thousands of these rivers
draining into the ice sheet,

557
00:23:31.510 --> 00:23:33.445
and at higher
elevations than we have

558
00:23:33.445 --> 00:23:35.014
ever really known
about before.

559
00:23:35.014 --> 00:23:38.217
Just with the availability
of better satellite imagery,

560
00:23:38.217 --> 00:23:40.119
higher resolution
data we're able to

561
00:23:40.119 --> 00:23:43.122
actually see just how many
of these rivers are,

562
00:23:43.122 --> 00:23:45.324
you know, bringing water into
the bottom of the ice sheet

563
00:23:45.324 --> 00:23:48.894
where it can affect the ice
dynamics and the ice flow.

564
00:23:48.894 --> 00:23:50.629
>> TOM WAGNER: Joining us
now is Dr. Sophie Nowicki.

565
00:23:50.629 --> 00:23:53.098
We're going to talk a little
bit about the actual work

566
00:23:53.098 --> 00:23:57.136
that we do to understand what's
going on inside the ice sheets.

567
00:23:57.136 --> 00:23:58.871
And first, we're going to
show you some more video

568
00:23:58.871 --> 00:24:01.707
from NASA's
Operation IceBridge.

569
00:24:01.707 --> 00:24:03.742
Hey, so Sophie, tell us what
we're looking at right now?

570
00:24:03.742 --> 00:24:04.977
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI:
It's a very nice image.

571
00:24:04.977 --> 00:24:06.111
Basically, you're seeing

572
00:24:06.111 --> 00:24:08.480
what is white is ice
flowing into the sea,

573
00:24:08.480 --> 00:24:10.749
those low ponds, they
are kind of darker.

574
00:24:10.749 --> 00:24:12.851
And you can see that ice
has very complex features,

575
00:24:12.851 --> 00:24:14.920
so different types of
river of ice...

576
00:24:14.920 --> 00:24:15.988
I mean, river of water.

577
00:24:15.988 --> 00:24:17.323
So those are very
different to

578
00:24:17.323 --> 00:24:18.657
what Larry was
showing you before.

579
00:24:18.657 --> 00:24:19.825
This is really hard ice.

580
00:24:19.825 --> 00:24:20.926
>> TOM WAGNER:
This is actual ice?

581
00:24:20.926 --> 00:24:22.294
This isn't water
going into the ocean?

582
00:24:22.294 --> 00:24:24.763
This is something that's like
an ice cube out of my fridge.

583
00:24:24.763 --> 00:24:26.332
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Yes, and
then, you know, ice cube.

584
00:24:26.332 --> 00:24:28.734
So what you can map
now with this...

585
00:24:28.734 --> 00:24:31.170
with our measurement
tools' capabilities,

586
00:24:31.170 --> 00:24:33.038
it's the actual
height of the ice.

587
00:24:33.038 --> 00:24:39.078
And as time goes, you see
this is a height of the surface

588
00:24:39.078 --> 00:24:40.245
-- >> TOM WAGNER:
Okay. So over here,

589
00:24:40.245 --> 00:24:41.914
we've got our vertical axis.

590
00:24:41.914 --> 00:24:44.350
That's meters, that's
height of the ice.

591
00:24:44.350 --> 00:24:46.719
And then what, this is along
the flight line itself?

592
00:24:46.719 --> 00:24:47.853
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Exactly.

593
00:24:47.853 --> 00:24:49.521
>> TOM WAGNER: Okay. And this
is the height of the ice

594
00:24:49.521 --> 00:24:51.657
going down and that's
the water out there?

595
00:24:51.657 --> 00:24:52.691
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Yes.

596
00:24:52.691 --> 00:24:54.093
And so you can see
there's a big drop.

597
00:24:54.093 --> 00:24:55.594
That's where the
ice meets the ocean.

598
00:24:55.594 --> 00:24:58.097
And this drop, the second,
is going backwards,

599
00:24:58.097 --> 00:24:59.498
at the moment, in time.

600
00:24:59.498 --> 00:25:00.532
>> TOM WAGNER: Whoa!

601
00:25:00.532 --> 00:25:01.800
So that's the ice
front backtracking?

602
00:25:01.800 --> 00:25:03.035
>> MICHELLE: It's
going all the way back.

603
00:25:03.035 --> 00:25:04.770
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Yeah. Like a
five-kilometers jump in time.

604
00:25:04.770 --> 00:25:06.238
So it's a very... even
though, you know,

605
00:25:06.238 --> 00:25:07.906
you think about ice
as an ice cube,

606
00:25:07.906 --> 00:25:09.174
it's actually very dynamic.

607
00:25:09.174 --> 00:25:10.909
It kind of moves
back and forth.

608
00:25:10.909 --> 00:25:12.111
>> TOM WAGNER: So -- >>

609
00:25:12.111 --> 00:25:13.112
MICHELLE: Let's talk
a little bit about

610
00:25:13.112 --> 00:25:14.980
how this data was taken because
this is very dramatic, right?

611
00:25:14.980 --> 00:25:16.815
>> MICHELLE: Operation
IceBridge is an aircraft -

612
00:25:16.815 --> 00:25:18.017
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Yes.

613
00:25:18.017 --> 00:25:19.818
>> MICHELLE: and the aircraft
actually flies over Greenland

614
00:25:19.818 --> 00:25:22.921
and Antarctica and it
bounces lasers off the ice.

615
00:25:22.921 --> 00:25:24.089
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: It does.

616
00:25:24.089 --> 00:25:26.225
One of the measurements that
they do is that they measure,

617
00:25:26.225 --> 00:25:27.926
they bounce lasers
off the surface

618
00:25:27.926 --> 00:25:30.429
and it goes back, but they also
kind of have other measurements,

619
00:25:30.429 --> 00:25:31.597
which hopefully we'll see later,

620
00:25:31.597 --> 00:25:32.998
that goes through the ice.

621
00:25:32.998 --> 00:25:35.100
And what's amazing is
that Greenland is so big.

622
00:25:35.100 --> 00:25:38.537
It's about, uh, I mean, a
quarter of the size of the US,

623
00:25:38.537 --> 00:25:42.608
but they flow... NASA has flown
over quite a big portion

624
00:25:42.608 --> 00:25:45.144
of that over the
last few years.

625
00:25:45.144 --> 00:25:47.813
>> ROBERT HALLBERG: So
the research, project

626
00:25:47.813 --> 00:25:51.216
that I was involved in this
past week is looking at

627
00:25:51.216 --> 00:25:54.720
the calving of
tidewater glaciers.

628
00:25:54.720 --> 00:25:57.556
So there are fjords
here in Greenland

629
00:25:57.556 --> 00:26:00.726
where the water comes right up
to the face of the glacier.

630
00:26:00.726 --> 00:26:04.730
The water down below
is warm and salty.

631
00:26:04.730 --> 00:26:07.933
There is meltwater that
comes shooting out

632
00:26:07.933 --> 00:26:10.803
through large gaps of
the base of the -

633
00:26:10.803 --> 00:26:13.505
of the ice sheets
right into the water,

634
00:26:13.505 --> 00:26:16.041
and that creates these
turbulent plumes of water

635
00:26:16.041 --> 00:26:18.744
that draw yet more
warm water in.

636
00:26:18.744 --> 00:26:21.180
And it's this interaction
between the ice

637
00:26:21.180 --> 00:26:23.849
and the ocean that may
help to regulate,

638
00:26:23.849 --> 00:26:26.785
how quickly sea
level will rise.

639
00:26:26.785 --> 00:26:29.588
Our climate models,
because they are global

640
00:26:29.588 --> 00:26:31.356
and have to run
for centuries,

641
00:26:31.356 --> 00:26:32.724
we can only resolve down

642
00:26:32.724 --> 00:26:34.626
to scales of order
a few kilometers.

643
00:26:34.626 --> 00:26:37.296
And yet all the action of
that ice shelf front

644
00:26:37.296 --> 00:26:39.998
is happening on scales of
just a few hundred meters.

645
00:26:39.998 --> 00:26:44.169
It's fun and exciting and
it's stunning to watch.

646
00:26:44.169 --> 00:26:46.105
But one of our challenges
is figuring out

647
00:26:46.105 --> 00:26:49.641
how to incorporate all
that... all that action

648
00:26:49.641 --> 00:26:51.477
that's happening
in small scales

649
00:26:51.477 --> 00:26:55.113
and put it into
global-scale models.

650
00:26:55.113 --> 00:26:56.648
It's absolutely essential.

651
00:26:56.648 --> 00:27:00.185
It's the processes that
are going on in the fjords

652
00:27:00.185 --> 00:27:02.554
and up on the ice
cap that control

653
00:27:02.554 --> 00:27:06.124
how the system is
going to evolve.

654
00:27:06.124 --> 00:27:09.061
We know that sea
level is rising,

655
00:27:09.061 --> 00:27:11.763
we know that the ice
sheets are losing mass,

656
00:27:11.763 --> 00:27:13.699
but we need to understand why,

657
00:27:13.699 --> 00:27:16.201
because it's only that
why that helps us

658
00:27:16.201 --> 00:27:19.404
to project how things will
change in the future.

659
00:27:19.404 --> 00:27:20.806
>> MICHELLE: And it turns
out that that "why"

660
00:27:20.806 --> 00:27:23.275
is actually kind of a
complicated question to answer

661
00:27:23.275 --> 00:27:26.378
because we cannot see directly
inside the ice sheets.

662
00:27:26.378 --> 00:27:27.579
>> TOM WAGNER: Yeah.
And one of the things

663
00:27:27.579 --> 00:27:28.580
that's always impressed me is,

664
00:27:28.580 --> 00:27:30.449
when you look at the modeling
results that came out

665
00:27:30.449 --> 00:27:32.251
of like the IPCC report,

666
00:27:32.251 --> 00:27:35.053
our best projections for
future sea level rise;

667
00:27:35.053 --> 00:27:37.990
Sophie, you were involved with
that, there is a huge spread.

668
00:27:37.990 --> 00:27:39.825
You know, like we talk
about sea level rise

669
00:27:39.825 --> 00:27:41.760
in the next hundred
years being,

670
00:27:41.760 --> 00:27:45.163
"Is it a foot, is it five
feet, could it be more?"

671
00:27:45.163 --> 00:27:47.566
Tell us about how
those models are made?

672
00:27:47.566 --> 00:27:49.935
Like what goes into
them, as a start?

673
00:27:49.935 --> 00:27:51.803
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: So you
have to think of a model

674
00:27:51.803 --> 00:27:54.239
as a virtual laboratory
that I'm building.

675
00:27:54.239 --> 00:27:55.974
I'm putting all of the things
that I think that matters,

676
00:27:55.974 --> 00:27:57.809
so the snowfall, the bedrock,

677
00:27:57.809 --> 00:27:59.511
how the bedrock reacts.

678
00:27:59.511 --> 00:28:02.080
And then basically, we
let it mix together

679
00:28:02.080 --> 00:28:03.949
and kind of explore
and understand,

680
00:28:03.949 --> 00:28:05.817
the way that if
I poke my system,

681
00:28:05.817 --> 00:28:07.185
what's going to happen.

682
00:28:07.185 --> 00:28:08.620
So if you look at
my projection,

683
00:28:08.620 --> 00:28:09.922
there is a spread

684
00:28:09.922 --> 00:28:11.990
because we try lots
of different scenarios.

685
00:28:11.990 --> 00:28:13.458
Maybe you want to
kind of see,

686
00:28:13.458 --> 00:28:15.360
you know, is the snowfall

687
00:28:15.360 --> 00:28:17.095
going to matter more
in a hundred years,

688
00:28:17.095 --> 00:28:18.597
is it going to
be the ocean?

689
00:28:18.597 --> 00:28:20.632
And as then just showed
in the video before,

690
00:28:20.632 --> 00:28:23.001
I mean, ice-ocean interaction
is quite complex.

691
00:28:23.001 --> 00:28:24.303
>> TOM WAGNER: Right, but
take us back to the basics

692
00:28:24.303 --> 00:28:25.604
just for a second, right?

693
00:28:25.604 --> 00:28:27.673
So you talked about we've
got this numerical model

694
00:28:27.673 --> 00:28:30.242
that describes how the
ice flows into the ocean.

695
00:28:30.242 --> 00:28:31.443
It also takes... you've got

696
00:28:31.443 --> 00:28:33.478
how much snow falls on
the surface of the ice.

697
00:28:33.478 --> 00:28:36.448
But then you mentioned something
like the bedrock underneath,

698
00:28:36.448 --> 00:28:39.384
how does the bedrock
affect an ice sheet model

699
00:28:39.384 --> 00:28:41.086
that's useful
for sea level rise?

700
00:28:41.086 --> 00:28:42.588
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: So
that's a good question

701
00:28:42.588 --> 00:28:44.256
because before
Operation IceBridge

702
00:28:44.256 --> 00:28:45.891
we had no idea what the
bedrock looked like.

703
00:28:45.891 --> 00:28:47.426
And that's one of
the good...for me,

704
00:28:47.426 --> 00:28:48.827
one of the most beautiful return

705
00:28:48.827 --> 00:28:51.563
about Operation IceBridge
is the shape of the bed.

706
00:28:51.563 --> 00:28:55.367
It matters because it
tells me how big my ice is,

707
00:28:55.367 --> 00:28:57.436
volume of the ice that's
available to flow.

708
00:28:57.436 --> 00:28:58.837
So it's one thing, how
much ice do I have?

709
00:28:58.837 --> 00:29:00.238
>> TOM WAGNER: How
much ice is there? Okay.

710
00:29:00.238 --> 00:29:01.607
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: But
also, it also matters

711
00:29:01.607 --> 00:29:03.909
because, you know, imagine
you are skiing downhill.

712
00:29:03.909 --> 00:29:06.244
You go quite fast because
it's going downhill.

713
00:29:06.244 --> 00:29:07.479
So the ice is
the same thing.

714
00:29:07.479 --> 00:29:10.949
I'm going to go fly... I
just go down quite fast.

715
00:29:10.949 --> 00:29:13.685
But if I have to fly... if
I have to slide down

716
00:29:13.685 --> 00:29:14.820
if you have skii uphill,

717
00:29:14.820 --> 00:29:16.622
you have to really do
lots of hard work.

718
00:29:16.622 --> 00:29:18.023
It's the same
thing for the ice.

719
00:29:18.023 --> 00:29:20.125
If the bedrock changes and
they have to go uphill,

720
00:29:20.125 --> 00:29:21.326
it's hard work for me.

721
00:29:21.326 --> 00:29:22.427
>> TOM WAGNER: Okay.

722
00:29:22.427 --> 00:29:23.595
>> MICHELLE: And this
must affect the way

723
00:29:23.595 --> 00:29:24.730
that the ice is melting.

724
00:29:24.730 --> 00:29:26.698
I mean, if there is this
terrain underneath Greenland

725
00:29:26.698 --> 00:29:28.033
that we're only
just aware of,

726
00:29:28.033 --> 00:29:30.335
I mean, we discovered
this giant canyon system

727
00:29:30.335 --> 00:29:32.204
from the data from
Operation IceBridge.

728
00:29:32.204 --> 00:29:33.405
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI:
That is correct.

729
00:29:33.405 --> 00:29:34.706
And then also those
canyons that are basically

730
00:29:34.706 --> 00:29:36.108
the size of the
Grand Canyons,

731
00:29:36.108 --> 00:29:39.211
this is also where some of the
water that Larry showed you

732
00:29:39.211 --> 00:29:41.113
going into the surface
is going to be trapped

733
00:29:41.113 --> 00:29:43.982
and locked down and those are
going to affect my ice flow.

734
00:29:43.982 --> 00:29:46.218
>> TOM WAGNER: So - okay,
but one of the other things too

735
00:29:46.218 --> 00:29:47.185
with the bedrock.

736
00:29:47.185 --> 00:29:49.454
So we've been talking
recently about Antarctica

737
00:29:49.454 --> 00:29:51.623
and last year we had those
papers come out where we said,

738
00:29:51.623 --> 00:29:54.226
"Oh my gosh, part of
Antarctica is unstable now

739
00:29:54.226 --> 00:29:56.428
and the sea level is
going to rise rapidly!"

740
00:29:56.428 --> 00:29:57.963
Tell us about what they found

741
00:29:57.963 --> 00:29:59.731
and how that affects models.

742
00:29:59.731 --> 00:30:02.000
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: So
there basically...

743
00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:04.469
as Operation IceBridge
was flying over,

744
00:30:04.469 --> 00:30:05.437
they managed to kind of

745
00:30:05.437 --> 00:30:07.039
so there is a big
bump in the bed,

746
00:30:07.039 --> 00:30:08.740
and those bumps in
the bed means that

747
00:30:08.740 --> 00:30:12.844
when the ice is changing
due to a warmer ocean,

748
00:30:12.844 --> 00:30:14.946
when the ice is
retreating back

749
00:30:14.946 --> 00:30:17.516
into the interior
of the ice sheet,

750
00:30:17.516 --> 00:30:18.717
if I have a little low bump

751
00:30:18.717 --> 00:30:20.419
then I can basically
anchor myself.

752
00:30:20.419 --> 00:30:21.787
And that's basically
why knowing

753
00:30:21.787 --> 00:30:23.355
the bed is so important because,

754
00:30:23.355 --> 00:30:24.656
"Do I have a place
to anchor myself

755
00:30:24.656 --> 00:30:27.559
as I'm collapsing or do I
don't have a bump in the bed

756
00:30:27.559 --> 00:30:29.194
and therefore
I keep on going?"

757
00:30:29.194 --> 00:30:30.629
>> TOM WAGNER: Uh-huh,
so literally the...

758
00:30:30.629 --> 00:30:33.165
when you retreat past
the anchor point,

759
00:30:33.165 --> 00:30:36.501
the ice pops up and it can
begin almost to float.

760
00:30:36.501 --> 00:30:37.669
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: It
can begin to float,

761
00:30:37.669 --> 00:30:38.637
and then it's just like,

762
00:30:38.637 --> 00:30:39.705
you know, when you are

763
00:30:39.705 --> 00:30:40.806
-- >> TOM WAGNER: And we're
talking about hundreds,

764
00:30:40.806 --> 00:30:42.974
ice that's how thick,
hundreds of feet?

765
00:30:42.974 --> 00:30:45.010
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI: Yes,
it is hundreds of feet.

766
00:30:45.010 --> 00:30:48.513
So it's quite
impressive, actually,

767
00:30:48.513 --> 00:30:50.382
how dynamic the ice can be.

768
00:30:50.382 --> 00:30:51.717
>> TOM WAGNER: Okay, so
getting back to it, right?

769
00:30:51.717 --> 00:30:53.985
You know, people, I think
one of the problems

770
00:30:53.985 --> 00:30:55.654
that people get
into is they say,

771
00:30:55.654 --> 00:31:00.559
okay, scientists, give
us a projection.

772
00:31:00.559 --> 00:31:02.127
You know somebody wants
to put a power plant

773
00:31:02.127 --> 00:31:03.662
and they want to know
how high sea level

774
00:31:03.662 --> 00:31:05.397
is going to rise in
a hundred years.

775
00:31:05.397 --> 00:31:06.465
Right?

776
00:31:06.465 --> 00:31:07.866
We give them a spread
that goes, you know,

777
00:31:07.866 --> 00:31:08.867
in a hundred years from now,

778
00:31:08.867 --> 00:31:10.235
it's anywhere from
one to five feet,

779
00:31:10.235 --> 00:31:13.905
how does a result like that
affect the projections?

780
00:31:13.905 --> 00:31:16.374
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI:
Yeah. It's hard

781
00:31:16.374 --> 00:31:18.009
because when
you have those...

782
00:31:18.009 --> 00:31:21.947
those projections of
like... of the wide range,

783
00:31:21.947 --> 00:31:23.915
it's because it's
due to the fact

784
00:31:23.915 --> 00:31:25.450
that we're using
different models,

785
00:31:25.450 --> 00:31:27.452
we're using
different data sets.

786
00:31:27.452 --> 00:31:29.387
Sometimes, you know, I
maybe using in my bed

787
00:31:29.387 --> 00:31:31.423
and then somebody else is
using in a different bed,

788
00:31:31.423 --> 00:31:34.392
and so those all come to play
in a way that we couldn't know,

789
00:31:34.392 --> 00:31:38.263
and that's why the spread is
actually at the moment,

790
00:31:38.263 --> 00:31:40.766
you know, is good
because we'll...

791
00:31:40.766 --> 00:31:43.335
we have something to try to
work forward to refining,

792
00:31:43.335 --> 00:31:45.270
and NASA is doing a
huge amount of work

793
00:31:45.270 --> 00:31:46.571
to refining this spread,

794
00:31:46.571 --> 00:31:48.140
because of course I'm
not happy to tell you,

795
00:31:48.140 --> 00:31:51.309
I don't know if it's going
to be one feet or five feet.

796
00:31:51.309 --> 00:31:52.778
I would rather be able to
tell you it's going to be

797
00:31:52.778 --> 00:31:54.813
two and-a-half
foot for planning.

798
00:31:54.813 --> 00:31:56.014
>> SOPHIE NOWICKI:
But at the moment,

799
00:31:56.014 --> 00:31:56.982
this is just the way it is,

800
00:31:56.982 --> 00:31:58.416
the future is
real uncertain

801
00:31:58.416 --> 00:32:00.051
and that's what
we're dealing with.

802
00:32:00.051 --> 00:32:01.553
>> TOM WAGNER: Hey, guys!

803
00:32:01.553 --> 00:32:03.588
>> JOSH WILLIS: Well,
yeah, the...

804
00:32:03.588 --> 00:32:07.559
the oceans are definitely
eating away at the,

805
00:32:07.559 --> 00:32:09.628
Greenland ice
sheet from the edges.

806
00:32:09.628 --> 00:32:12.063
We've known pretty
well, for a long time

807
00:32:12.063 --> 00:32:13.465
that the surface
is melting.

808
00:32:13.465 --> 00:32:15.333
We can see that
melt from space.

809
00:32:15.333 --> 00:32:19.104
And, you know,
Larry and Vena

810
00:32:19.104 --> 00:32:20.472
were out on the ice

811
00:32:20.472 --> 00:32:25.243
watching the rivers of meltwater
dive down into these moulins,

812
00:32:25.243 --> 00:32:27.245
but, more recently,

813
00:32:27.245 --> 00:32:29.748
research has started
to suggest that,

814
00:32:29.748 --> 00:32:32.784
the ice is actually being
eaten away at the edges.

815
00:32:32.784 --> 00:32:36.388
Remember, a lot of these
glaciers which carry the ice

816
00:32:36.388 --> 00:32:39.391
away from the ice sheet
and into the oceans

817
00:32:39.391 --> 00:32:41.760
actually sit right
in the oceans.

818
00:32:41.760 --> 00:32:44.062
They literally have
a toe in the water,

819
00:32:44.062 --> 00:32:46.798
and that makes them
susceptible to warming

820
00:32:46.798 --> 00:32:48.700
and the intrusion
of warm water

821
00:32:48.700 --> 00:32:52.070
from the edges which can melt
away at the glaciers.

822
00:32:52.070 --> 00:32:53.104
>> TOM WAGNER: Tell us
a little bit about

823
00:32:53.104 --> 00:32:54.906
like the continental
shelf around Greenland,

824
00:32:54.906 --> 00:32:56.508
its relationship to the ocean,

825
00:32:56.508 --> 00:32:59.044
and that's relationship
to the ice?

826
00:32:59.044 --> 00:33:00.479
>> JOSH WILLIS: Well,
what's really interesting,

827
00:33:00.479 --> 00:33:02.814
Tom, is that the water
around Greenland

828
00:33:02.814 --> 00:33:04.816
is sort of upside-down.

829
00:33:04.816 --> 00:33:06.785
You have warm water

830
00:33:06.785 --> 00:33:08.954
underneath a layer
of cold water.

831
00:33:08.954 --> 00:33:10.755
Normally, it's the
other way around, right?

832
00:33:10.755 --> 00:33:11.990
Warm water rises.

833
00:33:11.990 --> 00:33:14.960
But the waters around
Greenland are actually,

834
00:33:14.960 --> 00:33:16.461
what we call "inverted,"

835
00:33:16.461 --> 00:33:18.663
meaning that the warm
water is actually at depth

836
00:33:18.663 --> 00:33:21.166
and it's at depth because
it's extra salty.

837
00:33:21.166 --> 00:33:22.901
This water comes
from the Atlantic,

838
00:33:22.901 --> 00:33:24.536
it's a very salty ocean.

839
00:33:24.536 --> 00:33:26.771
The cold water comes
from the arctic

840
00:33:26.771 --> 00:33:29.174
and it's very fresh
so it sits on top.

841
00:33:29.174 --> 00:33:32.444
What this means is that the
warm water has to climb up

842
00:33:32.444 --> 00:33:35.313
the continental shelf and
reach into the fjords

843
00:33:35.313 --> 00:33:37.616
in order to interact
with the glaciers.

844
00:33:37.616 --> 00:33:40.118
So one of the things we're
really interested in is

845
00:33:40.118 --> 00:33:42.621
just how that water
might get there,

846
00:33:42.621 --> 00:33:46.224
what pathways it might take
along the continental shelf.

847
00:33:47.325 --> 00:33:48.460
>> TOM WAGNER: We're
showing some video now

848
00:33:48.460 --> 00:33:49.961
of what it's like
to do that work.

849
00:33:49.961 --> 00:33:51.830
Can you tell us about the
oceanographic measurements

850
00:33:51.830 --> 00:33:56.668
that you actually make and
what goes into making them?

851
00:33:56.668 --> 00:33:58.103
>> JOSH WILLIS:
Yeah, absolutely.

852
00:33:58.103 --> 00:33:59.671
So this is really
exciting because,

853
00:33:59.671 --> 00:34:03.208
this ship has
sailed into a fjord,

854
00:34:03.208 --> 00:34:06.845
which is a long trench
carved by an ancient glacier

855
00:34:06.845 --> 00:34:09.314
and is now filled with
water and they're,

856
00:34:09.314 --> 00:34:10.782
deploying instruments.

857
00:34:10.782 --> 00:34:12.651
Some of them are
called 'moorings'

858
00:34:12.651 --> 00:34:15.554
which sit on the bottom and
collect data for a long time,

859
00:34:15.554 --> 00:34:18.490
and some of them
are CTDs which,

860
00:34:18.490 --> 00:34:20.625
are one-time
measurements of the ocean.

861
00:34:20.625 --> 00:34:22.961
You can see the ship
pushing away icebergs

862
00:34:22.961 --> 00:34:25.263
and folks paddling
through the slush.

863
00:34:25.263 --> 00:34:28.300
It's really hard work,
and it's really difficult.

864
00:34:28.300 --> 00:34:30.168
And, right now, we
actually have a ship,

865
00:34:30.168 --> 00:34:32.237
the 'Cape Race' which
you see right there

866
00:34:32.237 --> 00:34:33.972
at the end of the video,

867
00:34:33.972 --> 00:34:36.041
which is collecting
data about the shape

868
00:34:36.041 --> 00:34:37.943
and depth of these fjords,

869
00:34:37.943 --> 00:34:39.344
because that's really important

870
00:34:39.344 --> 00:34:40.812
for understanding how
that warm water

871
00:34:40.812 --> 00:34:43.982
can climb up onto the shelf
and reach the glaciers.

872
00:34:43.982 --> 00:34:45.650
>> TOM WAGNER: So
tell me a little bit.

873
00:34:45.650 --> 00:34:48.853
You go out and you make a few
point measurements, right?

874
00:34:48.853 --> 00:34:51.122
How do you synthesize
all this stuff together?

875
00:34:51.122 --> 00:34:52.424
You know to get
at those big...

876
00:34:52.424 --> 00:34:54.359
like, what are the big
picture-specific questions

877
00:34:54.359 --> 00:34:55.660
you're trying to answer

878
00:34:55.660 --> 00:34:58.129
and how do you put
all those things together?

879
00:34:58.129 --> 00:35:00.665
>> JOSH WILLIS: Well, most
people would tell you a model,

880
00:35:00.665 --> 00:35:02.100
but I'm going to
say, you just need

881
00:35:02.100 --> 00:35:04.102
a whole lot of those
point measurements.

882
00:35:04.102 --> 00:35:07.138
In fact,
we've only just begun

883
00:35:07.138 --> 00:35:09.441
to study the oceans
around Greenland.

884
00:35:09.441 --> 00:35:10.642
While there have
been a lot of,

885
00:35:10.642 --> 00:35:12.577
moorings placed

886
00:35:12.577 --> 00:35:15.747
and some surveys that have
happened for a long time

887
00:35:15.747 --> 00:35:19.451
in a very few places, the
vast majority of the area

888
00:35:19.451 --> 00:35:21.853
around the island of
Greenland is just unmeasured

889
00:35:21.853 --> 00:35:23.355
in terms of the ocean,

890
00:35:23.355 --> 00:35:25.256
not just how salty

891
00:35:25.256 --> 00:35:27.692
or how fresh or warm
or cold the water might be,

892
00:35:27.692 --> 00:35:29.327
but even how deep it is.

893
00:35:29.327 --> 00:35:31.763
In fact, there are huge
areas around Greenland

894
00:35:31.763 --> 00:35:34.666
where we have no depth
measurements so we don't know

895
00:35:34.666 --> 00:35:37.569
if there are deep
trenches, or sills

896
00:35:37.569 --> 00:35:40.071
that this warm water
might have to climb over.

897
00:35:40.071 --> 00:35:43.241
So we have a whole lot of
observations to make, and,

898
00:35:43.241 --> 00:35:45.944
right now we've
actually begun making

899
00:35:45.944 --> 00:35:48.747
those kinds of observations
with the new mission,

900
00:35:48.747 --> 00:35:51.883
'Oceans Melting
Greenland' or 'OMG'.

901
00:35:51.883 --> 00:35:53.151
>> TOM WAGNER: Yeah, and I
think we're going to share

902
00:35:53.151 --> 00:35:56.488
some video now of how the
aircraft work for OMG.

903
00:35:56.488 --> 00:35:58.023
>> MICHELLE: So describe
this mission here.

904
00:35:58.023 --> 00:36:00.025
>> JOSH WILLIS: Yeah. So
what you're seeing here

905
00:36:00.025 --> 00:36:02.327
is, an aircraft

906
00:36:02.327 --> 00:36:05.163
measurement of the
height of the ice.

907
00:36:05.163 --> 00:36:07.499
And, this is a measurement
that will fly once a year.

908
00:36:07.499 --> 00:36:09.968
We're also measuring
ocean temperatures

909
00:36:09.968 --> 00:36:12.470
using deployable instruments.

910
00:36:12.470 --> 00:36:15.373
So these are being dropped out
of back of the aircraft

911
00:36:15.373 --> 00:36:17.542
They fall through
the water and measure

912
00:36:17.542 --> 00:36:19.044
temperature and salinity,

913
00:36:19.044 --> 00:36:21.579
and then a small float
actually radios that data

914
00:36:21.579 --> 00:36:23.048
back to the airplane.

915
00:36:23.048 --> 00:36:27.285
So those two campaigns
will happen every year

916
00:36:27.285 --> 00:36:28.753
for about five years,

917
00:36:28.753 --> 00:36:31.222
but we also have,
ship-based measurements

918
00:36:31.222 --> 00:36:33.024
of the sea floor depth,

919
00:36:33.024 --> 00:36:36.227
and finally, an airplane
that measures gravity.

920
00:36:36.227 --> 00:36:38.029
And the gravity
measurements are important

921
00:36:38.029 --> 00:36:40.765
because that also
tells you about

922
00:36:40.765 --> 00:36:42.734
the depth of the sea floor.

923
00:36:42.734 --> 00:36:44.269
Whenever you fly
over a trench,

924
00:36:44.269 --> 00:36:46.271
the pull of gravity is
a little bit weaker,

925
00:36:46.271 --> 00:36:49.074
and that's how we can
infer on a lot of places

926
00:36:49.074 --> 00:36:50.508
where we can't drive the ship,

927
00:36:50.508 --> 00:36:52.577
we can infer how
deep the water is.

928
00:36:52.577 --> 00:36:56.081
So all four of these
campaigns are part of the

929
00:36:56.081 --> 00:37:00.418
Oceans Melting Greenland
Mission which started this year.

930
00:37:00.418 --> 00:37:02.253
We have the ship in
the water right now,

931
00:37:02.253 --> 00:37:07.325
and next year we'll be
starting to fly the airplanes.

932
00:37:07.325 --> 00:37:09.027
>> MICHELLE: The really
dramatic interface of the land

933
00:37:09.027 --> 00:37:10.495
and the ocean and ice.

934
00:37:10.495 --> 00:37:11.963
Can you tell us, is there
anything special about

935
00:37:11.963 --> 00:37:14.499
the geography of a fjord
that affects how the ice

936
00:37:14.499 --> 00:37:16.167
and the ocean work together?

937
00:37:16.167 --> 00:37:18.403
>> JOSH WILLIS: Uh the glaciers
dug out these trenches,

938
00:37:18.403 --> 00:37:21.039
uh, on their
path off the land

939
00:37:21.039 --> 00:37:22.507
and towards the ocean

940
00:37:22.507 --> 00:37:26.745
and left behind avenues
for this warm water

941
00:37:26.745 --> 00:37:30.682
to sneak up from the deep and
interact with the glaciers.

942
00:37:30.682 --> 00:37:34.786
So a lot of what scientists
are focusing on today

943
00:37:34.786 --> 00:37:39.791
is this interface where
water meets ice meets land

944
00:37:39.791 --> 00:37:42.794
because that's where
the real action

945
00:37:42.794 --> 00:37:46.064
is in terms of the
ocean-ice interaction.

946
00:37:46.064 --> 00:37:49.100
As we heard about before,
a lot of the meltwater

947
00:37:49.100 --> 00:37:52.937
from the surface actually
digs down through the ice sheet

948
00:37:52.937 --> 00:37:56.141
and it finds its way
to the ocean actually

949
00:37:56.141 --> 00:37:58.209
at the bottom of the ice.

950
00:37:58.209 --> 00:38:00.145
So it often, you know,
in some cases,

951
00:38:00.145 --> 00:38:02.580
it comes out right at
the bottom of the ice,

952
00:38:02.580 --> 00:38:04.482
and then because it's light

953
00:38:04.482 --> 00:38:06.351
and fresh, it surfaces.

954
00:38:06.351 --> 00:38:08.386
That can pull warm water

955
00:38:08.386 --> 00:38:10.188
in towards the
bottom of the glacier

956
00:38:10.188 --> 00:38:11.823
and increase melting,
and that's what

957
00:38:11.823 --> 00:38:14.359
we're really looking
for with OMG.

958
00:38:15.627 --> 00:38:17.162
>> MICHELLE: So here we
see these little arrows

959
00:38:17.162 --> 00:38:18.763
are indicating the
flow of the ice?

960
00:38:18.763 --> 00:38:20.131
>> TOM WAGNER: Right.
So here we are,

961
00:38:20.131 --> 00:38:21.499
the blue is the ocean.

962
00:38:21.499 --> 00:38:22.734
Those blue lines are showing

963
00:38:22.734 --> 00:38:24.502
the direction of
flow of the ice.

964
00:38:24.502 --> 00:38:26.804
And you can see what happens is
it's kind of slow on the sides,

965
00:38:26.804 --> 00:38:28.806
then it gets into this
racetrack in the middle

966
00:38:28.806 --> 00:38:31.643
and it goes out to the ocean.

967
00:38:31.643 --> 00:38:34.045
And what's so fascinating
about this is that

968
00:38:34.045 --> 00:38:35.947
you can see kind of
right at the front.

969
00:38:35.947 --> 00:38:37.682
This stuff is like...
some people call it

970
00:38:37.682 --> 00:38:39.884
like the cork in the
bottle, you know.

971
00:38:39.884 --> 00:38:42.020
And that... these
processes that Josh's team

972
00:38:42.020 --> 00:38:43.721
is studying under OMG,

973
00:38:43.721 --> 00:38:47.225
they are looking at
how the ocean causes

974
00:38:47.225 --> 00:38:49.861
the ice to fracture
more easily,

975
00:38:49.861 --> 00:38:51.930
pull that cork out
of the bottle,

976
00:38:51.930 --> 00:38:54.032
and let the ice
behind it speed up

977
00:38:54.032 --> 00:38:55.967
and really dump in the ocean.

978
00:38:55.967 --> 00:38:57.101
>> MICHELLE: We're really
seeing just how many

979
00:38:57.101 --> 00:38:59.070
complex interactions are
going on here that

980
00:38:59.070 --> 00:39:00.738
as the air warms that
affects the ice,

981
00:39:00.738 --> 00:39:03.074
as the ocean warms that
affects the ice as well.

982
00:39:03.074 --> 00:39:04.509
So this is one of
the reasons we see

983
00:39:04.509 --> 00:39:06.644
such dramatic changes
at the poles.

984
00:39:06.644 --> 00:39:07.679
>> TOM WAGNER: Yeah, and
it's one of the reasons

985
00:39:07.679 --> 00:39:09.247
that NASA gets
involved in this work.

986
00:39:09.247 --> 00:39:11.115
You know you need a lot of
new technology to do this.

987
00:39:11.115 --> 00:39:13.251
A lot of its remote
sensing which means

988
00:39:13.251 --> 00:39:15.086
we make measurements
from far away,

989
00:39:15.086 --> 00:39:16.521
from aircraft or satellites.

990
00:39:16.521 --> 00:39:18.556
But then we kind of take
the view of trying to model it

991
00:39:18.556 --> 00:39:20.725
and pull all those
little pieces together.

992
00:39:20.725 --> 00:39:23.294
This is a Jakobshavn
glacier from Greenland,

993
00:39:23.294 --> 00:39:24.996
one of the most important
outlet glaciers,

994
00:39:24.996 --> 00:39:27.098
it drains quite a
bit of Greenland.

995
00:39:27.098 --> 00:39:31.603
This is where the front of
the glacier was in 1850.

996
00:39:31.603 --> 00:39:34.005
This is where the
glacier was today.

997
00:39:34.005 --> 00:39:35.974
And this is actually,
really recent stuff

998
00:39:35.974 --> 00:39:38.109
from just a few days ago, that
shows you just how much

999
00:39:38.109 --> 00:39:40.612
ice can be lost over the
course of a couple of days.

1000
00:39:42.247 --> 00:39:43.548
>> MICHELLE: So we're
actually seeing ice

1001
00:39:43.548 --> 00:39:44.582
cracking up right there,

1002
00:39:44.582 --> 00:39:45.917
that's the change that
we're looking for?

1003
00:39:45.917 --> 00:39:47.085
>> TOM WAGNER: Right.
>> MICHELLE: Yeah.

1004
00:39:47.085 --> 00:39:48.152
>> TOM WAGNER: But I mean
-- and you are talking,

1005
00:39:48.152 --> 00:39:49.254
again, this is like

1006
00:39:49.254 --> 00:39:51.189
kilometer-scale type
events, you know.

1007
00:39:51.189 --> 00:39:52.390
>> TOM WAGNER: This ice,
actually here is

1008
00:39:52.390 --> 00:39:53.625
some footage of
the thing itself.

1009
00:39:53.625 --> 00:39:55.660
So there are some great
pictures of these,

1010
00:39:55.660 --> 00:39:57.895
but what people have done
is compared the sizes of

1011
00:39:57.895 --> 00:40:00.865
the chunks of ice breaking
off to like buildings.

1012
00:40:00.865 --> 00:40:02.533
And so, some of these
chunks you're looking at,

1013
00:40:02.533 --> 00:40:04.736
they are like as big as
the US Capitol building.

1014
00:40:04.736 --> 00:40:05.837
>> JOSH WILLIS: I
think, you know,

1015
00:40:05.837 --> 00:40:09.607
one of the striking things
about that image of the ice

1016
00:40:09.607 --> 00:40:13.077
breaking off is the timeline
that's associated with it.

1017
00:40:13.077 --> 00:40:15.146
If you look carefully,

1018
00:40:15.146 --> 00:40:19.250
that data goes back
to the late 1800s.

1019
00:40:19.250 --> 00:40:21.252
So this glacier has
been retreating,

1020
00:40:21.252 --> 00:40:25.023
steadily for
the last 150 years.

1021
00:40:25.023 --> 00:40:28.626
And it's
happening, you know,

1022
00:40:28.626 --> 00:40:31.696
on a glacial time-scale,
very rapidly.

1023
00:40:31.696 --> 00:40:34.632
So we're really interested
in trying to study just

1024
00:40:34.632 --> 00:40:37.969
how these things
are proceeding

1025
00:40:37.969 --> 00:40:39.737
and what the role of
the ocean might be

1026
00:40:39.737 --> 00:40:41.673
in helping
to drive them.

1027
00:40:41.673 --> 00:40:44.742
Clearly, if those things are
being eaten away at the edges,

1028
00:40:44.742 --> 00:40:46.477
we need to be able
to quantify that

1029
00:40:46.477 --> 00:40:50.515
if we ever hope to predict
sea level rise into the future.

1030
00:40:50.515 --> 00:40:51.582
>> TOM WAGNER: Hey, Josh!

1031
00:40:51.582 --> 00:40:53.851
Now you are kind of a man
who's a Jack of all trades.

1032
00:40:53.851 --> 00:40:55.687
We're also going to talk
now about Jason-3

1033
00:40:55.687 --> 00:40:57.188
as we kind of
finalize our program

1034
00:40:57.188 --> 00:40:58.189
and we're going to
start talking about

1035
00:40:58.189 --> 00:41:00.625
what are the things that
are coming next for NASA.

1036
00:41:00.625 --> 00:41:02.293
Can you tell us a
little about Jason-3?

1037
00:41:02.293 --> 00:41:03.561
And I understand we
have a picture of it

1038
00:41:03.561 --> 00:41:05.496
to put up that you
might talk to.

1039
00:41:05.496 --> 00:41:07.665
>> JOSH WILLIS: Well,
the Jason missions

1040
00:41:07.665 --> 00:41:09.200
are really in my opinion,

1041
00:41:09.200 --> 00:41:12.003
one of our most
important means

1042
00:41:12.003 --> 00:41:16.708
of measuring the human impact
on the global climate.

1043
00:41:16.708 --> 00:41:20.578
Because these missions
measure the total volume

1044
00:41:20.578 --> 00:41:23.147
of the ocean basically
once every ten days,

1045
00:41:23.147 --> 00:41:24.849
we can really watch how,

1046
00:41:24.849 --> 00:41:28.653
the entire planet is
responding to climate change,

1047
00:41:28.653 --> 00:41:30.688
with kind of
one single number,

1048
00:41:30.688 --> 00:41:33.324
and these satellites
have been providing

1049
00:41:33.324 --> 00:41:36.627
that record since
the early 1990s,

1050
00:41:36.627 --> 00:41:38.963
and we're really looking
forward to Jason-3

1051
00:41:38.963 --> 00:41:41.065
in order to continue
that record.

1052
00:41:41.065 --> 00:41:43.701
A lot of folks ask, "Well,
what's new about Jason-3?"

1053
00:41:43.701 --> 00:41:45.470
And I like to say, "Well,
it's going to measure

1054
00:41:45.470 --> 00:41:48.239
the next five years instead
of the last five years."

1055
00:41:48.239 --> 00:41:51.042
And really, that's a big
deal in climate science.

1056
00:41:51.042 --> 00:41:55.113
A lot of what we need are long
records to be able to compare

1057
00:41:55.113 --> 00:41:57.348
what's going
on to the ice

1058
00:41:57.348 --> 00:42:02.520
and the oceans today with
how they were decades ago.

1059
00:42:02.520 --> 00:42:04.222
>> TOM WAGNER: I think
what people forget is

1060
00:42:04.222 --> 00:42:06.324
some of the big components
of the Earth's system,

1061
00:42:06.324 --> 00:42:08.559
they behave on
decadal timescales.

1062
00:42:08.559 --> 00:42:10.661
Like the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.

1063
00:42:11.963 --> 00:42:13.564
So tell us a
little about that.

1064
00:42:13.564 --> 00:42:14.832
>> JOSH WILLIS:
Yeah, absolutely.

1065
00:42:14.832 --> 00:42:16.100
One of the things that,

1066
00:42:16.100 --> 00:42:17.735
the satellite altimeters

1067
00:42:17.735 --> 00:42:19.670
do is they
measure sea level,

1068
00:42:19.670 --> 00:42:21.339
not just everywhere
around the globe,

1069
00:42:21.339 --> 00:42:23.541
but in each place
around the globe.

1070
00:42:23.541 --> 00:42:26.711
So you can see clearly
where the Pacific Ocean

1071
00:42:26.711 --> 00:42:30.314
is rising quickly, like
in the West Pacific

1072
00:42:30.314 --> 00:42:32.417
near Indonesia and Australia.

1073
00:42:32.417 --> 00:42:34.919
They've been getting hammered
with rates of sea level rise

1074
00:42:34.919 --> 00:42:38.322
that are three times as
large as the global average.

1075
00:42:38.322 --> 00:42:41.225
So they are getting way
more than their fair share

1076
00:42:41.225 --> 00:42:42.894
of sea level rise.

1077
00:42:42.894 --> 00:42:47.131
We on the West Coast,
here in California,

1078
00:42:47.131 --> 00:42:49.233
have been getting less
than our fair share.

1079
00:42:49.233 --> 00:42:51.569
In fact, in some places
sea levels have actually

1080
00:42:51.569 --> 00:42:55.206
fallen very slightly, and
that sometimes can give us

1081
00:42:55.206 --> 00:42:57.308
a sort of false
sense of security.

1082
00:42:57.308 --> 00:42:59.410
You know, global sea
levels are rising

1083
00:42:59.410 --> 00:43:02.647
and we're going to have
to pay that debt of,

1084
00:43:02.647 --> 00:43:05.817
sea level rise that we
didn't get in the last 20 years

1085
00:43:05.817 --> 00:43:09.020
probably sometime in
the next 20 years.

1086
00:43:09.020 --> 00:43:10.521
>> TOM WAGNER: Josh, thanks a
lot for joining us today!

1087
00:43:10.521 --> 00:43:11.522
We really appreciate it!

1088
00:43:11.522 --> 00:43:12.957
Good luck with
that mission!

1089
00:43:12.957 --> 00:43:14.659
>> MICHELLE: So we've
talked a lot today about

1090
00:43:14.659 --> 00:43:15.960
all kinds of
different scientists

1091
00:43:15.960 --> 00:43:17.261
that are studying ice,

1092
00:43:17.261 --> 00:43:18.863
that are studying
ocean level rise,

1093
00:43:18.863 --> 00:43:21.432
and one of my big questions
is, "What comes next?"

1094
00:43:21.432 --> 00:43:22.867
>> TOM WAGNER: Yeah. So
NASA has actually got

1095
00:43:22.867 --> 00:43:24.168
a bunch of missions coming up

1096
00:43:24.168 --> 00:43:25.503
that's going to
help us with this.

1097
00:43:25.503 --> 00:43:26.871
You know, so the next
thing that's going to happen

1098
00:43:26.871 --> 00:43:28.439
is the Grace
Follow-On Mission

1099
00:43:28.439 --> 00:43:31.142
which we're hoping is going
to provide a higher resolution

1100
00:43:31.142 --> 00:43:33.978
look at this mass loss and
change of the ice sheets.

1101
00:43:33.978 --> 00:43:36.147
Then after that, we have
the ICESat-2 launch.

1102
00:43:36.147 --> 00:43:38.816
An ICESat is this laser
altimeter that goes and --

1103
00:43:38.816 --> 00:43:41.018
literally, it's like a
laser pointer in space,

1104
00:43:41.018 --> 00:43:42.987
tells us very precisely
the height of the ice

1105
00:43:42.987 --> 00:43:44.689
over the entire planet.

1106
00:43:44.689 --> 00:43:46.524
It even also gets used
to measure global forest

1107
00:43:46.524 --> 00:43:48.092
heights and abundance.

1108
00:43:48.092 --> 00:43:49.427
And so then after
that we will have

1109
00:43:49.427 --> 00:43:51.195
what's called the NISAR Mission,

1110
00:43:51.195 --> 00:43:53.030
which is a mission
jointly with India,

1111
00:43:53.030 --> 00:43:55.233
that's a new radar mapper,
that's going to tell us

1112
00:43:55.233 --> 00:43:57.935
a lot about how the
velocity of the ice flow

1113
00:43:57.935 --> 00:43:59.670
to the ocean
has been changing.

1114
00:43:59.670 --> 00:44:01.639
So what we are really
hoping is that we can pull

1115
00:44:01.639 --> 00:44:02.974
all this information
together

1116
00:44:02.974 --> 00:44:04.842
and really narrow down
those error bars

1117
00:44:04.842 --> 00:44:06.377
on the estimates of
sea level rise

1118
00:44:06.377 --> 00:44:08.246
and help society plan.

1119
00:44:08.246 --> 00:44:09.814
>> MICHELLE: And it may
surprise you to know

1120
00:44:09.814 --> 00:44:12.817
that so many NASA resources are
being used to study the ice,

1121
00:44:12.817 --> 00:44:14.118
to study the Earth.

1122
00:44:14.118 --> 00:44:15.319
So when people ask
you the question,

1123
00:44:15.319 --> 00:44:17.288
"Why is NASA studying ice?"

1124
00:44:17.288 --> 00:44:18.389
What's your answer?

1125
00:44:18.389 --> 00:44:19.724
>> TOM WAGNER: You know,
it's a pretty simple answer.

1126
00:44:19.724 --> 00:44:21.058
This is global question.

1127
00:44:21.058 --> 00:44:22.860
You need to measure all the
different parts of the system

1128
00:44:22.860 --> 00:44:25.363
at once and you need different
technologies to do it,

1129
00:44:25.363 --> 00:44:26.564
and new technologies,

1130
00:44:26.564 --> 00:44:28.299
and that's what NASA
excels at, you know.

1131
00:44:28.299 --> 00:44:30.935
And so we build the satellites
and the technologies

1132
00:44:30.935 --> 00:44:33.037
and the aircraft to make
these kinds of measurements

1133
00:44:33.037 --> 00:44:35.172
and we put people in the field
to help pull it together.

1134
00:44:35.172 --> 00:44:37.375
But I should say too, we
also work with our partners.

1135
00:44:37.375 --> 00:44:39.043
You know, the National
Science Foundation,

1136
00:44:39.043 --> 00:44:42.046
the Department of Energy,
NOAA, the USGS,

1137
00:44:42.046 --> 00:44:43.781
they are also all
working on this problem

1138
00:44:43.781 --> 00:44:45.183
and we all work together.

1139
00:44:45.183 --> 00:44:47.451
>> MICHELLE: So NASA is
studying many different aspects

1140
00:44:47.451 --> 00:44:49.287
of how the oceans
are changing,

1141
00:44:49.287 --> 00:44:51.222
and this is something that's
happening right now.

1142
00:44:51.222 --> 00:44:53.124
This is something that's going
to affect all of our lives,

1143
00:44:53.124 --> 00:44:55.560
no matter how close
we actually live to water.

1144
00:44:55.560 --> 00:44:58.596
So on behalf of NASA and
all the scientists of NASA,

1145
00:44:58.596 --> 00:45:00.631
one of the things
I can say is,

1146
00:45:00.631 --> 00:45:04.302
our Earth is changing, and
at NASA, we're on it.