[music playing]
- IT'S REALLY MY VERY, VERY GREAT PLEASURE
TO INTRODUCE OUR-- OUR SPEAKER TODAY
WHO'S GONNA TALK ABOUT A TOPIC
OF INCREDIBLE INTEREST AND CONCERN.
AND I'D ALSO LIKE TO WELCOME EVERYBODY
TO THE--THE--THIS IS, I THINK, ABOUT THE FOURTH OR FIFTH
DISTINGUISHED LECTURE IN OUR 75TH-ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS
OF AMES RESEARCH CENTER
ON THE DIRECTOR'S COLLOQUIUM SERIES.
SO, YOU KNOW, 75 YEARS, YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN' YET.
JUST WAIT FOR THE NEXT 150. [laughter]
IF WE SURVIVE ASTEROIDS, THAT'S...
NOW, OUR SPEAKER DOESN'T NEED MUCH INTRODUCTION
BUT I'LL DO THAT ANYHOW.
RUSTY SCHWEICKART RECEIVED HIS BACHELOR OF SCIENCE DEGREE
IN AERONAUTICAL ENGINEERING
AND HIS--IN 1956,
AND HIS MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS
IN 1963.
BOTH FROM--THERE'S A SMALL EAST COAST COLLEGE
YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD OF.
M.I.T., I THINK IT WAS CALLED.
I THINK IT'S STILL THERE, ISN'T IT?
- YES. - YES.
[laughs] THAT-- THAT'S NOT A BAD START.
YOU HEAR THAT, YOU STANFORD GUYS?
[laughter]
RUSTY SERVED AS A FIGHTER PILOT IN THE U.S. AIR FORCE
AND THE MASSACHUSETTS AIR NATIONAL GUARD
FROM 1956 TO 1963.
HE JOINED NASA AS AN ASTRONAUT
IN OCTOBER 1963.
HE SERVED AS LUNAR MODULE PILOT FOR APOLLO 9
IN MARCH 3 TO 13, 1969,
LOGGING 241 HOURS IN SPACE.
THIS WAS THE THIRD MANNED FLIGHT OF THE APOLLO SERIES
AND THE FIRST MANNED FLIGHT OF THE LUNAR MODULE.
IN 1977,
RUSTY WORKED ON THE STAFF OF GOVERNOR JERRY BROWN--
YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD OF THAT NAME.
HE'S BACK AGAIN-- OF CALIFORNIA.
IN 1979, RUSTY WAS APPOINTED COMMISSIONER OF ENERGY
FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
AND RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL ASPECTS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION.
IN 1985,
HE FOUNDED THE ASSOCIATION OF SPACE EXPLORERS, A.S.E.
AND HE PARTICULARLY FOUNDED
THE A.S.E. NEAR EARTH OBJECTS COMMITTEE,
WHICH SUBMITTED TO THE UNITED NATIONS COMMITTEE
ON THE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE,
BETTER KNOWN AS COPUOS,
THE SEMINAL REPORT
"ASTEROID THREATS: A CALL FOR GLOBAL RESPONSE."
HE IS COFOUNDER OF THE NONPROFIT B612 FOUNDATION
WITH ED LU, WHO IS ALSO HERE,
ALSO AN ASTRONAUT,
AND SERVED AS ITS CHAIRMAN UNTIL 2011,
IS CURRENTLY CHAIR EMERITUS ON THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS.
HIS TALK TODAY IS ENTITLED
"DINOSAUR SYNDROME AVOIDANCE PROJECT--"
WHAT A COOL NAME--
"HOW GOZIT?"
WITHOUT FURTHER ADO, RUSTY, WELCOME BACK...
[applause]
- OKAY, AS PETE SAID,
WE'RE GONNA DO A SUMMARY HERE OF THE--
WHAT I CALL THE ASTRONAUT SYNDROME AVOIDANCE PROJECT,
WHICH MEANS, DON'T GET KILLED BY ASTEROIDS.
OR EXTINCTED, NOT JUST KILLED,
BUT DRIVEN INTO EXTINCTION.
THIS IS GONNA BE TOP LEVEL AND COMPREHENSIVE,
WHICH MEANS IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO GET IT DONE IN THE TIME,
BUT WE'RE GONNA TRY TO DO IT FAST
AND LEAVE TIME FOR Q&A.
LET ME SAY THAT IT'S SPECIAL PRIVILEGE BEING HERE TODAY,
BECAUSE 45 YEARS AGO TODAY
THE APOLLO 11 CREW WAS ON THEIR WAY TO THE MOON.
THEY LAUNCHED YESTERDAY 45 YEARS AGO,
AND ON SUNDAY THEY WILL, 45 YEARS AGO,
LAND ON THE MOON.
I FLEW IN MARCH OF THAT YEAR,
AND IT WAS A TREMENDOUS PRIVILEGE
TO BE PART OF APOLLO AND THAT GREAT TIME.
I'LL SAY SOMETHING MORE ABOUT IT LATER.
SO I'M WEARING TWO HATS FOR THIS TALK.
THE B612 FOUNDATION,
WHICH ED IS NOW LEADING,
DEALS WITH THE TECHNICAL ISSUES
OF PLANETARY DEFENSE.
WHEREAS THE ASSOCIATION OF SPACE EXPLORERS,
WHICH IS OUR PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATION
OF ASTRONAUTS AND COSMONAUTS,
HAS BEEN DEALING, FOR THE LAST EIGHT YEARS,
WITH THE GEOPOLITICAL ELEMENTS.
AGAIN, WE'RE GONNA GET INTO THAT,
BUT FIRST, THIS IS A MANDATORY MESSAGE
FROM MY WIFE, WHO UNFORTUNATELY
COULDN'T BE WITH US TODAY.
IT SAYS AT THE BOTTOM,
"MY HUSBAND HAS A MORBID FEAR OF ASTEROIDS."
[laughter]
WE'LL IGNORE THAT.
LET'S SEE IF THE INTERFACE WORKS.
OKAY, SO POPULAR CONCEPTION OF WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ASTEROIDS
"WHOA, DUDE, CHECK OUT THIS AWESOME ASTEROID...
IT'S GETTING BIGGER BY THE SECOND.
HURRY UP BEFORE YOU MISS IT."
BUT THE ONE I LIKE IS
MR. DINOSAUR LOOKING AT MRS. DINOSAUR
AND SAYING, "THAT DRESS KIND OF MAKES YOU LOOK FAT."
[laughter]
THAT'LL DO IT.
SO THIS IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.
THIS HAPPENED--
HAPPENS MILLIONS--
HAS HAPPENED MILLIONS OF TIMES IN THE HISTORY OF THE EARTH,
NOT EXACTLY LIKE THIS.
THAT'S A PRETTY BIG ASTEROID, AND YOU'LL NOTICE CITY LIGHTS,
AND SO THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN WHEN THOSE WERE AROUND.
BUT OTHER THAN THAT, YOU GET THE IDEA.
WHEN I GREW UP AND WAS THE AGE OF MOST OF THE PEOPLE
IN THIS--SOME OF THE PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM,
THE KIDS ANYWAY,
OUR SOLAR SYSTEM WAS NINE PLANETS AND THE SUN.
EVERYTHING WAS WELL-BEHAVED,
YOU KNOW, AND WE HAD NINE OF 'EM.
NOW, WE ONLY HAVE EIGHT PLANETS,
THANKS TO NEIL TYSON.
[laughter] BUT THAT'S NOT THE SOLAR SYSTEM.
THE SOLAR SYSTEM REALLY LOOKS LIKE THIS
WITH THE MAIN ASTEROID BELT AND THE INNER PLANETS
OF MERCURY, VENUS, EARTH, AND MARS.
AND THE RED DOTS ARE THE ONES THAT CONCERN US,
THE ONES IN THE INNER SOLAR SYSTEM
THAT ARE NEAR EARTH ASTEROIDS.
THOSE CROSS THE ORBIT OF THE EARTH,
AND IF THEY CROSS THE ORBIT OF THE EARTH,
THEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT.
AND THOSE ARE THE ONES WHICH WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY LOOKING AT
AND THE SUBJECT OF OUR WHOLE ISSUE OF PLANETARY DEFENSE
AND PROTECTING THE EARTH FROM THOSE IMPACTS.
WELL, THE EVIDENCE FOR THOSE RED OBJECTS
THAT SWOOP INTO THE INNER PART OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM
AND COME PAST THE EARTH AND THE MOON
ARE ALL OF THE CRATERS ON THE MOON.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A ROCKET SCIENTIST TO RECOGNIZE
THAT THERE HAVE BEEN ONE HECK OF A LOT OF IMPACTS
ON EVERY BODY THAT YOU SEE
WHERE THERE-- YOU CAN SEE A SURFACE,
WHERE IT'S A SOLID SURFACE AND NOT A GASEOUS SURFACE.
THIS IS AN INTERESTING SHOT OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOON.
AND OF COURSE, YOU CAN SEE
THAT THE CRATERS ARE NOT ONLY ALL OVER IT,
BUT THEY OVERLAP ONE ANOTHER.
I MEAN, YOU GOT CRATERS ON CRATERS ON CRATERS.
AGAIN, YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A ROCKET SCIENTIST
TO REALIZE THAT IF--
THAT WE WOULD LOOK LIKE THAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE AN ATMOSPHERE
AND TECTONIC PLATES
AND WEATHER AND ALL OF THE REST OF IT
THAT PROTECT THE EARTH
FROM THE SMALLER ASTEROIDS IMPACTING
AND THAT ERASE THE LARGER ONES
THAT DID IMPACT AND MAKE HOLES IN THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH.
IT DIDN'T ERASE ALL OF THEM.
WE'LL SEE ONE IN A MOMENT.
ASTEROIDS COME IN MANY DIFFERENT SIZES
AND SHAPES,
ALL OF WHICH ARE INTERESTING.
THE BIGGEST ONES HERE ARE MAIN BELT ASTEROIDS.
THEY DON'T COME IN--
WE DON'T HAVE ANY THAT ARE HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS ACROSS
THAT COME IN ACROSS THE EARTH'S ORBIT.
BUT THIS ONE UP HERE IS EROS,
IS THE SECOND-LARGEST NEAR EARTH ASTEROID
OR NEAR EARTH OBJECT--
I'LL USE THOSE TERMS INTERCHANGEABLY--
AND THAT'S 33 KILOMETERS LONG.
SO THAT'S-- FIGURE THE BIGGEST ONE.
IN FACT, THE BIGGEST ONE'S ABOUT THE SAME DIMENSION
IT'S JUST MORE SPHERICAL THAN THAT,
SO IT'S A LITTLE MORE MASSIVE.
BUT I, IN PARTICULAR, WANT TO CALL YOUR ATTENTION
TO ONE THAT'S ON THIS CHART
CALLED ITOKAWA
AND ITOKAWA, THE JAPANESE HAVE VISITED--
WE'LL SEE A PICTURE OF IT IN A MOMENT.
IT'S A DOT THAT YOU CAN'T EVEN SEE ON THIS SCREEN.
IT'S--IT'S ABOUT A PIXEL IN SIZE UP THERE.
AND HERE IT IS CLOSE UP,
TAKEN--PICTURE TAKEN BY THE JAPANESE.
LIKE THIS OBJECT HERE...
THIS IS PROBABLY WHAT WE CALL
A CONTACT BINARY,
THAT IS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
THERE'S A BIG MASS IN HERE
WITH A BUNCH OF ROCKS AND DUST AND EVERYTHING
AND ANOTHER BIG MASS HERE.
SO THESE ARE REALLY TWO OBJECTS
KIND OF THAT GOT STUCK TOGETHER.
WE CALL IT A CONTACT BINARY.
AND A LOT OF THE ASTEROIDS, AND APPARENTLY,
EVEN THE COMETS SHOW THAT CHARACTERISTIC
OF BEING CONTACT BINARIES.
SO YOU'RE DEALING WITH SOMETHING THAT'S 520 METERS,
OR SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 1,700 FEET
FROM ONE END TO THE OTHER.
TO GIVE YOU SOME RELATIVE SCALE,
THERE'S HANGAR ONE
OUTSIDE THE DOOR HERE, OKAY?
SO YOU PICTURE HOW BIG HANGAR ONE IS
AND NOW YOU'VE GOT THE RELATIVE SIZE THERE
WITH--WITH ITOKAWA.
BEFORE WE LEAVE THIS, I WANT TO SHOW YOU,
THAT'S ABOUT A 20-METER-LONG BOULDER
ON THE SURFACE
AND THAT'S ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE OBJECT
THAT CAME IN OVER CHELYABINSK LAST FEBRUARY.
YOU'VE ALL SEEN THE--THE MOVIES
OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST FEBRUARY THE 13TH--
FEBRUARY 15TH, EXCUSE ME,
9:00 IN THE MORNING.
IT WAS A VERY INTERESTING DAY
BECAUSE ASTRONOMERS ALL OVER THE WORLD
WERE WAITING FOR ASTEROIDS TO HAPPEN THAT DAY.
BUT IN FACT, IT WAS THIS ONE,
WHICH WAS DA14,
WHICH WAS COMING SORT OF BY THE EARTH
VERY, VERY CLOSE SOUTH TO NORTH.
AND SO EVERYBODY HAD ALL THEIR TELESCOPES
AND THEIR THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER THING
READY TO CAPTURE THIS ASTEROID,
AND THEN, LO AND BEHOLD,
EARLY--EARLY, EARLY IN THE MORNING
THE TWITTERVERSE CAME ALIVE
AND IT TURNED OUT THAT ONE THIS SIZE
ACTUALLY CAME IN THAT SAME DAY
THAT THIS ONE WENT BY THE EARTH.
ONE THAT SIZE HIT OVER CHELYABINSK
IN--IN RUSSIA.
NOW, DON'T ASK ME, WHY RUSSIA?
WE'RE VERY HAPPY THAT MOST ASTEROIDS
SEEM TO HIT IN RUSSIA.
[laughter]
PARTICULARLY APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION
AT THE MOMENT.
IN ANY EVENT, YOU CAN SEE BY THE SHADOW
THIS IS ABOUT 45 METERS,
OR 45 YARDS IN DIMENSION.
THIS ONE'S ONLY ABOUT 60 FEET,
OR 20 METERS IN--IN LENGTH.
AND YET, WHEN THAT CAME IN OVER RUSSIA--
AGAIN, UNFORTUNATELY, THE MOVIE ISN'T HERE,
BUT ALL OF YOU KNOW
THAT THIS THING CAME STREAKING THROUGH THE SKY
MUCH, MUCH BRIGHTER--
AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE BRIGHTER THAN THE SUN.
EVERYONE SAID, "WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED?"
AND HERE'S THIS BIG STREAK DOWN THROUGH THE SKY
AND EVERYONE RAN OVER TO THE WINDOWS
TO LOOK OUT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENED
AND THEN THE SHOCK WAVE HIT,
BROKE ALL THE WINDOWS,
AND CUT EVERYBODY'S FACE.
SO YOU HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE WITH SUPERFICIAL CUTS
AND A LOT OF SUPERFICIAL DAMAGE
TO SOMETHING LIKE 1,700 BUILDINGS.
BUT THAT WAS A VERY, VERY SMALL ASTEROID,
IN FACT.
WE DID NOT EXPECT THAT AN ASTEROID THAT SIZE
COULD DO THE KIND OF DAMAGE THAT IT DID.
AND SO THE EXPERIENCE LAST YEAR--PARDON ME--
THE EXPERIENCE LAST YEAR IN CHELYABINSK
TOLD US THAT, IN FACT,
EVEN THE SMALL ONES CAN DO A BIT MORE DAMAGE
THAN WE THOUGHT WAS POSSIBLE.
THEY ALSO HAPPEN TO HIT A LITTLE MORE FREQUENTLY
THAN--THAN WE THOUGHT.
I'LL MENTION THAT A LITTLE FURTHER ON.
WELL, THE--THE ONE THAT WAS THE SIZE OF DA14,
ABOUT 45 METERS IN DIAMETER,
IS THE SIZE OF THE ONE THAT HAPPENED IN 1908.
IT CAME DOWN, AGAIN, IN RUSSIA,
IN SIBERIA--
THE SO-CALLED TUNGUSKA EVENT.
AND THESE ARE SORT OF--
THAT'S AN ARTIST'S, UH...
RENDITION OF IT.
BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY A PHOTOGRAPH
OF THE FOREST WHICH WAS LAID DOWN
360 DEGREES--
ABOUT 800 SQUARE MILES
OF SIBERIAN FOREST WAS BLOWN DOWN
AND IGNITED AND BURNED.
AND IF THAT HAD HAPPENED OVER A CITY,
HERE, THAT IMPACT ZONE IS SUPERPOSED ON--
I THINK THAT'S LONDON, ISN'T IT?
OR IS IT WASHINGTON, D.C.?
IT LOOKS LIKE LONDON.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT THAT AREA OF TOTAL DESTRUCTION
WOULD BE BIGGER THAN SOMETHING LIKE ANY METROPOLITAN AREA
ON THE EARTH.
AND IF YOU KNOCK DOWN TREES LIKE THAT WITH THE SHOCK WAVE,
LET ME TELL YOU, YOU KNOCK DOWN PEOPLE AND BUILDINGS AS WELL.
SO GENERALLY SPEAKING,
ASTEROIDS OF THAT SIZE WE REFER TO--
I SHOULD SAY, THE CONGRESS, THANK HEAVEN,
REFER TO THEM AS CITY KILLERS.
SO WE HAVE HAPPILY ADOPTED THE TERM CITY KILLER.
THAT IS NOT TO IMPLY THAT THESE THINGS
ALWAYS HIT OVER CITIES.
THEY OBVIOUSLY DON'T.
BUT IF THEY DID, IT WOULD BASICALLY WIPE OUT
EVERYTHING IN SUCH A CITY.
NOW, SOME OF YOU HAVE SEEN METEOR CRATER.
AS I SAID, THERE ARE SOME IMPACT CRATERS
THAT HAVE HAPPENED RELATIVELY RECENTLY
THAT ARE STILL AVAILABLE
TO--TO SEE HERE ON EARTH.
THERE ARE PROBABLY ABOUT BETWEEN 190 AND 200 OF THEM
THAT YOU CAN SEE.
THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC ONE.
IT'S ABOUT A MILE ACROSS, NOT QUITE.
AND THERE IS A VISITORS CENTER HERE,
AND FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO MIGHT
DRIVE THROUGH ARIZONA ANY TIME,
DIVERT AND GO THERE IF YOU HAVEN'T BEEN THERE.
IT IS WELL WORTH GOING TO SEE METEOR CRATER.
THIS, AGAIN, WAS ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE ONE
THAT CAME IN OVER RUSSIA, THE TUNGUSKA EVENT.
THIS IS A CITY KILLER.
AND YOU COULD JUST PICTURE-- YOU KNOW, THE SHOCK AREA
THAT WOULD HAVE KILLED ANYTHING LIVING
IS WAY OUTSIDE JUST THE HOLE IN THE GROUND.
AND ABOUT HALF OF THE ENERGY OF THIS ASTEROID AS IT CAME IN
ALREADY DISSIPATED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
BY THE TIME IT HIT,
SO THE--THE HOLE IN THE GROUND YOU'RE SEEING
IS REALLY ONLY ABOUT HALF OF THE ENERGY INVOLVED.
THAT WAS PROBABLY ABOUT-- I DON'T KNOW.
WHAT ARE WE SAYING, 3 OR 5 MEGATONS OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT?
UM, OKAY, SO LET ME--
LET ME EMPHASIZE A COUPLE OF THINGS HERE.
THIS--NUMBER ONE, ASTEROIDS AREN'T SOMETHING
THAT HIT THE EARTH WAY BACK THEN
AND NO LONGER HAPPEN.
THIS IS AN ONGOING PROCESS,
AND IT'S AN ONGOING PROCESS AT ALL SIZES.
IT'S NOT JUST THE LITTLE ONES THAT HIT TODAY.
WE'RE--THERE'S STILL THE BIG ONES OUT THERE
AND THE FLUX, THAT IS THE RATE
AT WHICH THESE THINGS IMPACT HISTORICALLY,
IS ESSENTIALLY CONSTANT.
SO WE ARE, FRANKLY, AT RISK
WITH MILLIONS OF OBJECTS OUT THERE
EVERYWHERE FROM SOMETHING AS SMALL AS, SAY, 25 METERS
ALL THE UP TO SOMETHING
ON THE ORDER OF 10 KILOMETERS.
THAT'S ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE ONE
THAT CAUSED THE MASS EXTINCTION
THAT WIPED OUT THE DINOSAURS 65 MILLION YEARS AGO.
THOSE HIT ABOUT ONCE EVERY 100 MILLION YEARS
AND THEY HAVE ABOUT 100 MILLION TONS--
MEGATONS OF TNT EQUIVALENT.
I MEAN, THAT'S-- THAT'S UNBELIEVABLE.
THAT--THAT--THAT SIZE EVENT
WIPES OUT MOST OF LIFE ON EARTH.
AND IT DID IT PROBABLY SEVERAL TIMES.
CERTAINLY IT DID IT
AT THE K-T EXTINCTION 65 MILLION YEARS AGO.
THAT'S A LONG TIME BETWEEN IMPACTS, HOWEVER,
AND SO LIFE GROWS BACK UP AGAIN
AND DIVERSIFIES AND THEN IT GETS WIPED OUT AGAIN.
I MEAN, THIS IS A PROCESS THAT'S HAPPENED MANY TIMES TO LIFE
AS IT'S EMERGED HERE AND DEVELOPED ON THE EARTH.
AT THE SMALLER END, HOWEVER,
YOU'RE TALKING OBJECTS LIKE THE ONE A LITTLE BIT LARGER
THAN THE ONE THAT HIT OVER CHELYABINSK A YEAR AGO,
THAT HAPPENS ABOUT ONCE EVERY 70 YEARS.
A CITY KILLER, ABOUT 50 METERS OR A LITTLE BIT SMALLER,
HAPPENS ABOUT ONCE EVERY 200 TO 300 YEARS.
NOW AGAIN, I WANT TO EMPHASIZE
THAT THESE CITY KILLER ASTEROIDS,
WHILE THEY HIT ONCE EVERY TWO OR THREE--
200 YEARS OR SO,
THEY ONLY HIT A CITY
ABOUT 2/10 OF 1% OF THE TIME,
OR MAYBE ONCE EVERY 50,000 TO 100,000 YEARS
A CITY WOULD GET WIPED OUT.
BUT WE HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THIS POPULATION.
WE'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THESE THINGS.
WE KNOW STATISTICALLY WHAT'S OUT THERE,
BUT IF WE WANT TO PROTECT THE EARTH FROM IMPACTS,
YOU CAN'T PROTECT YOURSELF FROM A STATISTIC.
YOU'VE GOT TO KNOW SPECIFICALLY
WHAT'S COMING AT YOU,
HOW OFTEN, WHEN, HOW MUCH ENERGY, ET CETERA.
SO THE--THE WHOLE PROCESS OF PLANETARY DEFENSE
AND PROTECTING THE EARTH FROM ASTEROID IMPACTS
BOILS DOWN TO THREE FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGES
THAT WE HAVE TO MEET.
WE HAVE TO--WE HAVE TO KNOW
THE--WHERE THEY ARE
AND WHAT THEIR TRAJECTORY IS
AND PROJECT AHEAD AND SAY, IS THIS ONE GOING TO HIT?
AND IF SO, WHEN, ET CETERA.
THAT IS AN EARLY WARNING PROCESS.
THE--THE NEXT THING, OF COURSE,
IF YOU KNOW SOMETHING'S COMING AT YOU,
IS YOU'VE GOT TO BE ABLE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT,
AND THAT'S A DEFLECTION CAPABILITY.
YOU GOT TO BE ABLE TO CHANGE THE TRAJECTORY
OF THAT ASTEROID SLIGHTLY
SO THAT IT MISSES THE EARTH INSTEAD OF HITTING IT,
AND WE CALL THAT DEFLECTION.
THOSE TWO ARE BASICALLY TECHNICAL ISSUES.
THE THIRD ONE IS REALLY A GEOPOLITICAL ISSUE,
AND THAT IS SOMEBODY'S--
YOU CAN KNOW SOMETHING'S COMING AT YOU,
YOU CAN HAVE SOMETHING TO DO ABOUT IT,
BUT SOMEBODY'S GOTTA MAKE THE DECISION.
WHO PAYS FOR IT?
WHO HANDLES THE LIABILITY IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG?
WHO TAKES THE RESPONSIBILITY?
THERE ARE ALL KINDS-- THERE ARE A MILLION QUESTIONS--
GEOPOLITICAL QUESTIONS THAT COME UP IN IT,
AND WE'RE GONNA HIT THAT VERY BRIEFLY.
SO THE FIRST TWO OF THESE TECHNICAL ISSUES
ARE THE THINGS THAT THE B612 FOUNDATION
HAS BEEN WORKING
FOR THE LAST TEN YEARS,
EARLY WARNING IN PARTICULAR FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS,
UNDER ED'S LEADERSHIP.
THE THIRD ISSUE, THE STANDING GEOPOLITICAL PROCESS,
THE ASSOCIATION OF SPACE EXPLORERS
HAS BEEN DEALING WITH, WITH THE UNITED NATIONS,
OR THROUGH THE UNITED NATIONS,
AND I'LL, AGAIN, SUMMARIZE THAT WORK
AND TELL YOU WHERE WE STAND.
OKAY, SO EARLY WARNING, WE TAKE THOSE ONE AT A TIME.
EARLY WARNING WE'VE BEEN DOING THROUGH TELESCOPES
LOCATED HERE ON THE GROUND, USUALLY OUT IN THE DESERT.
AND THERE ARE A NUMBER OF THESE AROUND THE WORLD,
MOST OF THEM IN THE U.S.,
BUT SOME OF THEM IN HAWAII.
ONCE IN A WHILE--
THAT ONE IS IN HAWAII.
COME ON. OKAY, THERE WE GO.
ONCE IN A WHILE, IF THEY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EARTH,
WE CAN NOT JUST LOOK AT THEM WITH OPTICAL TELESCOPES,
BUT WE CAN GET RADAR ON THEM.
AND THIS IS THE BIG ARECIBO RADAR DISH
IN PUERTO RICO.
AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RADAR SYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD,
AND THEY TELL US A--THEY GIVE US A LOT OF GOOD INFORMATION,
BECAUSE RADAR WILL GIVE YOU PRECISE INFORMATION
ON THE RANGE TO ONE OF THESE THINGS,
HOW FAR IT IS PRECISELY.
WHEREAS OPTICAL, YOU DON'T GET MUCH INFORMATION ON RANGE,
BUT YOU GET WHERE IT--POINTING UP AND DOWN, LEFT AND RIGHT.
SO THE TWO OF THESE, OPTICAL AND--AND RADAR
ARE A GREAT COMBINATION.
BUT AGAIN, YOU'RE LOCKED TO THE EARTH,
AND THERE ARE SOME REAL PROBLEMS WITH THAT.
THERE'S BEEN ONE TELESCOPE CALLED WISE,
WHICH IS A WIDE AREA-- WIDE--
LET'S SEE. WHAT DOES IT STAND FOR?
WIDE INFRARED SPACE SOMETHING OR OTHER.
IN ANY CASE, IT'S AN INFRARED TELESCOPE IN SPACE.
IT WAS REALLY BUILT TO DO ASTRONOMICAL WORK,
BUT IN ADDITION, IT PICKED UP A NUMBER OF ASTEROIDS.
BUT AGAIN, ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE VERY LIMITED,
AND TO DATE, WE HAVE ONLY FOUND ABOUT 1%
OF THE ASTEROIDS THAT THREATEN LIFE HERE ON EARTH
IF THEY HIT.
AND SO A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO,
B612 FOUNDATION UNDER ED'S LEADERSHIP
DECIDED TO SHIFT FROM THE WORK THAT WE HAD BEEN DOING
ON DEFLECTION TO FOCUS ON FINDING THEM,
BECAUSE IF YOU DON'T FIND 'EM,
THERE'S NOTHING ELSE THAT COUNTS.
I MEAN, YOU GOTTA KNOW WHAT'S COMING AT YOU.
AND SO WE SHIFTED OUR PRIORITIES
AND DECIDED TO COME UP WITH, AND PUT INTO SPACE,
A TELESCOPE WHICH WOULD FIND THE BULK OF THE ASTEROIDS
THAT REALLY POSE A THREAT TO LIFE ON THE PLANET.
AND THIS IS OUR SENTINEL TELESCOPE
OF B612 FOUNDATION.
IT'S BASED ON A KEPLER BUS.
I'LL--I'LL SHOW YOU AN ANIMATION HERE.
AGAIN, THIS IS AN INFRARED TELESCOPE IN SPACE
WITH--COMMUNICATES WITH THE GROUND.
WE PUT IT IN AN ORBIT CLOSER TO THE SUN,
ABOUT THE DISTANCE FROM THE SUN AS VENUS,
AND IT HAS ITS BACK ALWAYS FACING THE SUN
LOOKING OUTWARD AWAY FROM THE SUN.
AND OF COURSE, IF YOU'RE IN AROUND THE DISTANCE OF VENUS
AND LOOKING AWAY FROM THE SUN,
YOU'RE GONNA HAVE THE EARTH'S ORBIT OUT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SUN.
IN INFRARED,
WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT REFLECTED INFRARED SUNLIGHT
THAT REFLECTS OFF ASTEROIDS,
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE HEAT THAT'S--
THAT'S EMITTED BY THESE ASTEROIDS AS THEY GO AROUND.
THE SUN WILL TAKE
WHAT'S ABOUT THE BRIGHTNESS OF A PIECE OF CHARCOAL
AND IT WILL MAKE IT VERY HOT, OKAY?
IT'S ABOUT LIKE TOUCHING THE ROOF OF YOUR CAR ON A SUMMER DAY
OR WALKING ON BLACK ASPHALT, YOU KNOW?
IT'S PRETTY HOT.
AND THOSE ASTEROIDS WILL SHOW UP
AS BRIGHT SPOTS ON A VERY, VERY BLACK SKY.
SO INFRARED-- THE COMBINATION OF INFRARED
AND BEING INSIDE THE EARTH'S ORBIT LOOKING OUT
IS THE COMBINATION THAT SENTINEL WILL USE
IN ORDER TO DETECT ALL OF THE ASTEROIDS
OF--OF SUFFICIENT SIZE
THAT CROSS THE EARTH'S ORBIT.
HERE'S THE EARTH'S ORBIT.
THIS IS THE ORBIT OF SENTINEL.
AND IT'S LOOKING AWAY FROM THE SUN, AS YOU CAN SEE,
AND IT SEES THE EARTH'S ORBIT ALL THE WAY AROUND.
AND WE BASICALLY LOOK AT AND DISCOVER
ALL OF THE ASTEROIDS THAT CROSS THE EARTH'S ORBIT.
WE THEN TRACK THEM
AND YOU CAN THEN PREDICT 100 YEARS AHEAD OF TIME
WHETHER OR NOT EACH OF THOSE ASTEROIDS
POSES AN IMPACT THREAT.
OKAY, IF WE GO ON--
ALL RIGHT, SO THIS IS BASICALLY THE RECORD
OF WHAT'S BEEN DONE SO FAR.
THESE ARE THE KNOWN EARTH ASTEROIDS
UP THROUGH
DECEMBER OF 2013.
OVER 10,000 ASTEROID--
TOTAL ASTEROIDS HAVE BEEN DISCOVERED.
THE LARGE ONES HERE, THE RED ONES,
WE'VE DISCOVERED ABOUT 95%
OF ALL OF THESE LARGE ONES
OVER 1 KILOMETER.
BUT THAT'S A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE
OF THE TOTAL ASTEROID POPULATION
THAT CAN DO REAL DAMAGE IF IT HITS.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT-- THAT OVER A PERIOD
OF 15 YEARS OR SO
WE'VE ONLY DISCOVERED ABOUT A THOUSAND,
OR 10,000, EXCUSE ME.
AND AS I SAID, THERE ARE MANY, MANY MORE OF THEM OUT THERE.
AND HERE, IF WE GO OUT TO 2025
AND ASSUME SENTINEL, THAT LINE,
THIS--THIS POINT HERE COMES WAY DOWN THERE
AND THEN THE TOTAL POPULATION WE'RE GONNA DISCOVER
GOES WAY OUT THE ROOF OF THE BUILDING HERE.
WE WILL HAVE DISCOVERED OVER A MILLION ASTEROIDS
BY 2025, 100 TIMES MORE
THAN WE'VE DISCOVERED IN THE PAST TEN YEARS.
AND OF THOSE OVER A MILLION,
ABOUT 300,000 OF THEM
WILL BE THE CITY KILLER SIZE OR LARGER.
SO WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A HUGE POPULATION.
OF THAT 300,000,
ABOUT 4% OF THEM WILL HAVE A--
SOME, NOT--LISTEN CAREFULLY--
SOME "NON-ZERO" PROBABILITY
OF IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IN OTHER WORDS, SOME PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING THE EARTH
IN THE NEXT 100 YEARS.
THAT'S ABOUT THE STATISTICS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED SO FAR.
SO WE CAN EXPECT, AFTER 2025,
WE WILL HAVE AN INVENTORY
OF SOMEWHERE AROUND 12,000 ASTEROIDS
THAT HAVE SOME PROBABILITY
OF HITTING THE EARTH IN THE NEXT 100 YEARS.
AND WE'VE GOT TO WATCH THOSE CAREFULLY
AND TRACK THEM AND IF, IN FACT,
THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES BEYOND A CERTAIN THRESHOLD,
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO TAKE ACTION TO DEFLECT THEM.
OKAY, SO WHAT DO WE TALK ABOUT WITH DEFLECTION?
HERE'S WHERE I'M GOING TO GET INTO A LITTLE BIT OF--
OF TECHNOLOGY, BUT NOT MUCH.
IT'S VERY SUPERFICIAL,
BUT THIS WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND
THE GEOMETRY OF THE PROBLEM THAT WE'RE--
THAT WE'RE DEALING WITH.
SO IF THE SUN IS UP THERE,
THE EARTH'S ORBITING LIKE THIS ALONG THE GREEN LINE,
LET'S SAY WE HAVE AN ASTEROID
THAT'S CROSSING THE EARTH'S ORBIT
ON ITS OWN TRAJECTORY LIKE THIS.
OF COURSE, THERE'S ANOTHER SET OF ASTEROIDS
ACROSS THE OTHER DIRECTION.
BUT WE'LL TAKE ONE HERE--
ONE THAT'S COMING OUTSIDE IN TOWARD THE EARTH.
AND OF COURSE, IF THE EARTH IS AT THAT INTERSECTION--
AND LET ME HESITATE FOR A MOMENT.
THAT INTERSECTION IS VERY SPECIAL,
BECAUSE CLEARLY, THIS IS A TWO-DIMENSIONAL PLOT, OKAY?
BUT--SO THE QUESTION IS,
AT THAT INTERSECTION,
HOW FAR APART ARE THOSE TWO LINES?
HOW FAR APART ARE THOSE ORBITS
WHERE THEY INTERSECT IN TWO DIMENSIONS?
AND ABOUT 4% OF THE TIME
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO LINES,
VERTICALLY IF YOU WILL,
IS LESS THAN ONE EARTH RADIUS.
IN OTHER WORDS,
IN THOSE 4% OF CASES THAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR,
IF THE AIR-- IF THE ASTEROID
AND THE EARTH ARE THERE AT THAT INTERSECTION
AT THE SAME TIME, THEY'RE GONNA HIT.
AND THAT'S WHAT A--
THAT'S WHAT AN IMPACT IS.
LET'S GO BACK HERE.
LET'S--LET'S SAY WE'VE GOT AN ASTEROID
AND WE'RE ABLE TO PROJECT AHEAD 20 YEARS
THAT THIS ASTEROID IS GONNA BE HERE
AT THE TIME THAT THE EARTH IS HERE
GOING ALONG THIS PATH 20 YEARS FROM NOW.
AND AS WE GO FORWARD, YOU KNOW, SAY, A WEEK OR TWO AT A TIME,
THAT'S THE PROGRESSION.
THE EARTH MOVES ALONG ITS ORBIT, THE ASTEROID ALONG ITS ORBIT.
AND OF COURSE, IF THEY BOTH GET TO THE INTERSECTION
AT THE SAME TIME, YOU'VE GOT AN IMPACT.
OKAY, NOW, LET ME POINT OUT
THAT THIS IS OBVIOUSLY AN ISSUE OF TIMING,
BECAUSE IF THE ASTEROID WERE A LITTLE BIT SLOWER,
A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THOSE POINTS,
THE EARTH WOULD GET THROUGH THE INTERSECTION
BEFORE THE ASTEROID GOT THERE.
OR IF THE ASTEROID
WERE JUST A LITTLE BIT AHEAD OF THESE POINTS,
THEN THE ASTEROID WOULD GET THROUGH THE INTERSECTION
BEFORE THE EARTH GOT THERE.
SO IF WE KNOW THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE--
IF WE'RE PROJECTING AHEAD AND WE'RE GONNA SEE
THAT THERE'S GONNA BE A COLLISION,
THE WHOLE CHALLENGE OF DEFLECTION
IS TO CHANGE THE ORBIT--
CHANGE THE SPEED OF THAT ASTEROID JUST A LITTLE BIT
SO THAT 20 YEARS LATER AT THIS TIME,
THE ASTEROID ARRIVES AT THE INTERSECTION
BEFORE THE EARTH DOES AND GETS THROUGH IT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EARTH
OR THAT WE CAUSE IT TO ARRIVE A LITTLE BIT SLOWER
TO BE A LITTLE BEHIND THIS POINT,
AND THEREFORE, IT WILL ALLOW THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE EARTH
TO GET THROUGH THE INTERSECTION BEFORE IT ARRIVES.
IT TAKES THE EARTH ABOUT EIGHT MINUTES
FROM THE TIME THE LEADING EDGE GETS TO THE INTERSECTION
TILL THE TRAILING EDGE GOES THROUGH IT.
SO THE REAL QUESTION IS,
CHANGING THAT ASTEROID'S ARRIVAL TIME HERE,
20 YEARS DOWNSTREAM,
BY SOMETHING LIKE EIGHT MINUTES.
AND THAT WILL ALLOW-- THAT'S A DEFLECTION.
WE HAVE SUCCESSFULLY PREVENTED AN IMPACT IF WE DO THAT.
WELL, HOW DO WE CHANGE THE SPEED OF AN ASTEROID?
BEFORE I LEAVE THIS DIAGRAM,
I WANT--I'M GONNA ASK YOU IN A COUPLE MINUTES
TO THINK OF YOURSELF ON THIS ASTEROID
LOOKING AT THE EARTH AS YOU GET CLOSER AND CLOSER.
YOU'RE GONNA BE ON THIS ASTEROID
RIDING TOWARD THE EARTH IN JUST A MOMENT.
BUT TO GO BACK TO DEFLECTION,
OKAY, HOW DO WE CHANGE AN ASTEROID'S SPEED?
WELL, RUN INTO IT.
KINETIC IMPACT, YOU SIMPLY LAUNCH A SPACECRAFT--
A BUNCH OF WATER, SAND, ELECTRONICS,
WHATEVER YOU'VE GOT, DOESN'T MATTER--
YOU JUST LAUNCH SOMETHING AND RUN INTO THE SUCKER.
REAR-END IT, OKAY?
REAR-END IT IF YOU WANT TO MAKE IT GO FASTER,
OR FRONT-END IT IF YOU WANT TO MAKE IT GO SLOWER.
PRETTY SIMPLE, AND NOT EXACTLY--
IT IS ROCKET SCIENCE,
BUT IT'S SORT OF ROCKET NONSCIENCE, I GUESS.
OKAY, WELL, THAT'S-- THAT'S PRETTY ROBUST.
YOU CAN LAUNCH A BIG MASS AND YOU CAN RUN INTO IT PRETTY FAST
AND YOU CAN PROBABLY CHANGE ITS--ITS SPEED
BY, YOU KNOW, A FRACTION OF A MILE AN HOUR,
AND THAT'S ENOUGH.
IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE OF SPEED,
BUT THOSE SUCKERS ARE PRETTY BIG, SO...
OKAY, ON--OOPS, LET ME GO BACK ONE HERE.
AAH. WENT THE WRONG WAY.
OKAY, PARDON ME FOR STEPPING THROUGH THIS AGAIN.
OKAY, SO THE PROBLEM WITH THE KINETIC IMPACT--
I'M GONNA CATCH UP WITH YOU HERE FOR A MOMENT.
THE PROBLEM WITH THE KINETIC IMPACT
IS THAT WHILE IT'S PRETTY ROBUST,
YOU CAN GET A PRETTY GOOD IMPACT
AND CHANGE OF VELOCITY, IT'S IMPRECISE.
YOU DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN
AND WHAT YOU DON'T WANNA DO
IS JUST LEAVE THIS THING IN SOME RANDOM ORBIT.
YOU WANT TO KNOW AHEAD OF TIME
WHAT THE ORBIT CHANGE IS PRECISELY
THAT YOU GIVE IT.
SO THE WAY YOU USE THESE TWO THINGS IN CONJUNCTION,
WE GET A BRUTE FORCE CHANGE IN VELOCITY HERE
AND THEN WE USE A GRAVITY TRACTOR
WHERE WE HAVE A LITTLE SPACECRAFT--
LET'S SAY WE GOT AN ASTEROID HERE,
AND WE GOT A LITTLE BITTY SPACECRAFT,
WE GO UP THERE AND WE HOVER IN FRONT--
LET'S SAY THE ASTEROID'S MOVING THIS WAY--
WE HOVER IN FRONT OF IT,
AND IF WE STAY THERE, WE HAVE LITTLE THRUSTERS
AND WE STAY IN FRONT OF IT AT A FIXED POSITION,
THE MUTUAL GRAVITY BETWEEN THIS OBJECT--
THIS SPACECRAFT AND OUR ASTEROID
IS JUST ENOUGH THAT THAT GRAVITY
IS NOW PULLING THE ASTEROID WITH US, BEHIND US.
SO WE'RE USING GRAVITY, VERY WEAK GRAVITY FORCE
AS A TOW ROPE WITHOUT EVER TOUCHING THE ASTEROID.
WE DON'T LAND ON IT. WE DON'T CARE IF IT'S TUMBLING.
WE DON'T CARE WHAT IT'S MADE OF.
IT CAN BE DUST. IT CAN BE BIG ROCKS.
WE DON'T GIVE A DAMN.
AS LONG AS IT'S GOT MASS, WE'RE GONNA HAVE GRAVITY EFFECT,
WHICH IS GONNA TOW IT,
AND MAKE A VERY SMALL BUT PRECISE CHANGE
IN THE ORBIT.
THAT'S WHAT DEFLECTION IS ABOUT--
CHANGING THE SPEED A PRECISE AMOUNT
IN ORDER TO MISS THE EARTH.
OF COURSE, IF IT'S TOO BIG, WE USE THE BIG DOG.
WE WON'T TALK ABOUT THAT ONE.
WE DON'T LIKE IT. NOBODY LIKES IT.
BUT YOU KNOW, IT'S ALWAYS THERE
IN CASE THE ASTEROID IS TOO BIG.
ALL RIGHT, NOW WE'RE GONNA GO TO THE THIRD ELEMENT.
WE CAN KNOW SOMETHING'S COMING AT US.
WE HAVE SOMETHING WE CAN DO ABOUT IT.
WHO DOES IT?
WHO DECIDES WHO DOES IT?
WHO PAYS FOR IT?
ALL THAT, OKAY?
NOW, YOU-- NOW, I'M TAKING YOU--
YOU'RE RIDING ON THE ASTEROID, REMEMBER,
AND YOU'RE COMING TOWARD THE EARTH.
YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE EARTH AS YOU GET CLOSER AND CLOSER.
HERE'S YOUR VIEW OF THE EARTH.
THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE.
THE EARTH COULD BE ANY ORIENTATION HERE,
BUT LET'S JUST TAKE THIS AS AN EXAMPLE.
AND LET'S JUST SAY THAT IS THE PLANE
OF THE ASTEROID'S ORBIT.
YOU ARE APPROACHING THE EARTH IN THIS PLANE
THAT CUTS THROUGH THE EARTH
AT THAT POINT,
AT THAT--ALONG THAT LINE, OKAY?
SO NOW, IF YOU HIT THE EARTH--
IF YOU HIT THE EARTH,
YOU'RE GOING TO HIT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TRAILING EDGE HERE--
THE EARTH IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT--
AND THE LEADING EDGE.
YOU'RE GONNA HIT ALONG THAT LINE, OKAY?
THAT RED LINE WE CALL THE RISK CORRIDOR.
AND IN FACT, WE DON'T KNOW PRECISELY
WHAT THE TIMING IS.
SO IN FACT, YOU MAY BE ON A TRAJECTORY THAT TAKES YOU OUT
AND YOU PASS IN FRONT OF THE EARTH
AND GO THROUGH THE INTERSECTION FIRST.
OR YOU MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE AT THE INTERSECTION
AFTER THE EARTH,
IN WHICH CASE, YOU'RE GONNA ACTUALLY BE OUT HERE.
SO YOU'RE GONNA BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THIS LINE
BUT WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHERE
UNTIL WE GET UP THERE AND MEASURE PRECISELY
WHAT YOUR TRAJECTORY IS.
LET'S JUST SAY, FOR EXAMPLE,
WE'RE GONNA HAVE AN IMPACT, AND LET'S JUST SAY
IT'S RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC HERE.
ALL RIGHT?
NOW, IF YOU MAKE THE-- IF WE GO UP AND DEFLECT IT
AND WE MAKE IT ARRIVE A LITTLE BIT EARLY--
HELLO, THERE WE GO.
LET'S SAY WE MADE IT ARRIVE TWO MINUTES EARLIER,
OKAY, THEN IT WOULD HIT HERE.
OR IF WE MAKE IT ARRIVE FOUR MINUTES EARLY,
IT'S GONNA BE THERE.
OF COURSE, IF WE MAKE IT EIGHT MINUTES EARLY,
IT'S OVER THERE. THAT'S WHAT WE WANT, OKAY?
BUT IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG, OF COURSE,
IT'S GONNA HIT IN THOSE PLACES,
OR WE COULD MAKE IT ARRIVE TWO MINUTES LATE
OR MAYBE FOUR MINUTES LATE,
OR IF WE WANT IT TO MISS THE EARTH, EIGHT MINUTES LATE,
AND IT WOULD GO BEHIND THE EARTH.
ALL RIGHT?
IF YOU'RE A FRENCHMAN,
WHAT DO YOU SAY? OKAY?
"OH, WELL, LET'S MAKE IT GO TO THE LEFT," RIGHT?
AND IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN, YOU SAY,
"WELL, NO, NO. LET'S TAKE IT OVER--
YOU KNOW, LET'S TAKE IT OVER TO THE RIGHT."
IN OTHER WORDS, IN ORDER TO SUCCESSFULLY ACCOMPLISH
A DEFLECTION,
WE'RE GOING TO BE DRAGGING-- EFFECTIVELY DRAGGING
THE IMPACT POINT ALONG THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH,
ALONG THAT LINE UNTIL WE GET IT OUT HERE
SO THAT IT'S NO LONGER GONNA HIT THE EARTH.
BUT OF COURSE, IF SOMETHING GOES WRONG,
THESE PEOPLE COULD BE IN REAL DANGER.
SO THERE IS RISK.
ANY TIME YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A DEFLECTION,
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT SHIFTING RISK
AND PUTTING PEOPLE AT RISK WHO WERE NOT INITIALLY
IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE RISK FOR EVERYBODY.
AND YOU, AS THE PRESIDENT OF FRANCE
AND COMING UP FOR AN ELECTION,
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO SAY, "WELL, DO I ACCEPT THAT?"
YOU KNOW? "DO WE HAVE A REFERENDUM?
"WELL, WE GOTTA DECIDE BY NEXT WEEK.
WHAT DO WE DO?"
OKAY, AND SO THIS IS THE GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGE
OF DEFLECTION.
HOW DO YOU MAKE A DECISION?
AND FOR THAT MATTER, SUPPOSE WE DECIDE
TO DRAG IT THIS WAY,
DO WE LET RUSSIA DO THAT?
OR DOES THE UNITED STATES DO THAT?
OR MAYBE INDIA, OR MAYBE IF IT'S 100 YEARS FROM NOW,
ZAMBIA WITH THEIR SPACE PROGRAM.
WHO KNOWS? OKAY?
NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO,
IN ORDER TO HAVE A DEFLECTION,
YOU HAVE TO DRAG AN IMPACT POINT, WHEREVER IT IS ON EARTH,
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EARTH THAT WEREN'T AT RISK
IN ORDER TO GET IT OFF THE EARTH AND EVERYBODY SAFE.
THAT IS A HUGE GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGE.
OBVIOUSLY, THOSE ARE BAD.
THAT'S GOOD.
THOSE ARE THE ONES WE WANT.
OKAY, THERE IS THE BACK OF MY HEAD
BEFORE I HAD A BALD SPOT
SPEAKING AT THE UNITED NATIONS IN VIENNA
AT THE COMMITTEE ON THE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE,
OR AS PETE SAID, COPUOS.
AND WE TOOK THIS ISSUE TO THE UNITED NATIONS
AND BASICALLY SAID, "LOOK, GUYS,
"YOU KNOW, WE--THIS IS A COLLECTIVE DECISION.
"THE PLANET IS AT RISK HERE.
"EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ONE IMPACT POINT,
"EVERYBODY ON THE PLANET-- THAT--THAT LINE
"COULD BE ACROSS ANY COUNTRY,
"AND TYPICALLY THERE ARE GONNA BE 10 OR 20 COUNTRIES
"ALONG THAT LINE.
"THIS HAS GOT TO BE A COOPERATIVE PLANETARY EFFORT,
"AND YOU'VE GOT TO GET TOGETHER.
SO, UNITED NATIONS, GET ORGANIZED."
OKAY, SO I'M GONNA COME TO THE END HERE.
I'M GONNA GIVE A SCORECARD OF WHERE WE STAND
ON THESE THREE THINGS.
EARLY WARNING, OKAY?
EARLY WARNING I'M GONNA GIVE A B-MINUS.
NASA HAS DONE A PRETTY GOOD JOB
UP UNTIL A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO
WHEN THE LIMIT ON THEIR TELESCOPES
WAS ESSENTIALLY REACHED
AND THE CURVE DROPPED OFF VERY DRAMATICALLY.
THE DISCOVERY RATE IS ALMOST, NOT QUITE,
BUT ALMOST DOWN TO ZERO.
AND OF COURSE, WE'RE NOWHERE NEAR FINDING, YOU KNOW,
THE MILLION OBJECTS WE GOTTA FIND.
BUT WE KNOW HOW TO DO IT. WE'VE BEEN DOING IT.
IT'S JUST THAT NASA ISN'T GETTING THE MONEY THAT'S NEEDED
IN ORDER TO GET THIS DONE,
AND SO B612 FOUNDATION HAS SAID, "OKAY, JUST DO IT.
WE'LL DO IT. FINE." SO WE'RE DOING IT PRIVATELY.
AND AGAIN, IT'S A B-MINUS.
WE GOT A LOT OF WORK TO DO, BUT WE KNOW WHAT WE'RE DOING.
DEFLECTION--WE KNOW HOW TO DO A DEFLECTION.
WE KNOW IT CAN BE DONE.
THE TECHNOLOGY IS NOT THE ISSUE,
BUT IT'S GOTTA BE DEMONSTRATED.
AND WE'VE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO GET NASA OFF THE DIME
TO ACTUALLY ORGANIZE
AND SET UP A DEMONSTRATION OF A DEFLECTION.
ACTUALLY CHANGE THE ORBIT OF A, YOU KNOW, A RANDOM ASTEROID
THAT'S GOING BY.
BUT IT HASN'T BEEN DONE.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S STILL PRETTY EARLY.
SO LET'S JUST SAY D-MINUS,
BUT WE'RE NOT GONNA WORRY ABOUT IT TOO MUCH.
OKAY, THE GEOPOLITICAL--
THAT'S--THAT'S THE TOUGHEST ONE.
I'M GONNA GIVE AN INCOMPLETE.
YOU KNOW, THIS IS REALLY THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
OF THE THREE-- EARLY WARNING.
YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING
UNLESS YOU KNOW WHAT'S OUT THERE AND COMING AT YOU.
DEFLECTION YOU DON'T REALLY NEED
UNTIL YOU HAVE SOMETHING THAT'S COMING AT YOU,
BUT YOU BETTER BE READY.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS ONE,
THAT'S THE HARDEST ONE.
YOU CAN IMAGINE TRYING TO GET THE NATIONS OF THE WORLD
TO AGREE.
WHERE DIFFERENT NATIONS ARE GONNA BE ACCEPTING RISK
AND SOMEBODY ELSE IS GONNA HAVE IT ELIMINATED
AND WHOSE TAXPAYERS ARE--
ARE GONNA PAY, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
THAT'S A REALLY, REALLY TOUGH CHALLENGE.
NOW, SO THAT'S MY SCORECARD.
LET ME SAY IN RESPONSE TO PEOPLE WHO SAY,
"WHY THE UNITED NATIONS?"
WELL, THE UNITED NATIONS IS THE ONLY ORGANIZATION
THAT REALLY REPRESENTS EVERYBODY ON THE PLANET,
OR JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY.
SO, YOU KNOW, THEY GOT A BIG HAT.
YOU KNOW, NO CATTLE, BUT A BIG HAT.
BUT MY GOD, WHAT A HAT, YOU KNOW?
OKAY, SO COMING TO THE END OF THE TALK HERE,
LET ME JUST STAND BACK FROM ALL OF THIS
AND--AND BE A BIT PHILOSOPHICAL.
EVERYBODY IN THIS AUDIENCE
AND MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD
WHO THINK ABOUT THESE THINGS
HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT,
IS THERE LIFE OUT THERE IN THE UNIVERSE?
THERE MUST BE IN ALL OF THE BILLIONS OF GALAXIES--
AND THESE ARE ALL GALAXIES, THERE ARE NO STAR--
INDIVIDUAL STARS IN THAT IMAGE.
THEY'RE ALL GALAXIES, AND EACH OF THEM
HAS HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF--OF--OF STARS
IN EACH OF THOSE GALAXIES.
AND OF COURSE, WE KNOW THERE ARE PLANETS AROUND,
APPARENTLY, MOST STARS NOW
THAT WE SEEM TO HAVE DISCOVERED.
SO THERE IS LOTS AND LOTS OF PLANETS OUT THERE
IS IT IMAGINABLE THAT THERE'S NOT LIFE?
I DON'T THINK SO.
WE DON'T HAVE ANY PROOF OF IT, BUT IT CERTAINLY IS,
TO ME, NOT--IT'S NOT EVEN A STRETCH TO IMAGINE,
YOU KNOW, THAT THERE IS INTELLIGENT LIFE OUT THERE.
AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, IN MY VIEW, PERSONALLY,
THERE PROBABLY ARE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE FORMED A COMMUNITY FROM DIFFERENT PLANETS.
WHO KNOWS?
BUT ALL OF THEM--OH, I KEEP HITTING THAT. PARDON ME.
ALL OF THEM LIVE IN A SOLAR SYSTEM,
CAME FROM A SOLAR SYSTEM LIKE OURS.
AND WE KNOW THAT DIFFERENT STELLAR SYSTEMS
HAVE ASTEROIDS AND COMETS.
YOU KNOW, WE'RE NOT UNIQUE.
SO EVERYONE HAS FACED THIS.
AND MY THOUGHT HERE IS THAT THIS IS--
YOU KNOW, I LOOK AT MYSELF.
45 YEARS AGO I FLEW ON APOLLO.
I HAD THE GREAT PRIVILEGE
OF DEALING WITH THAT CHALLENGE
OF HUMAN BEINGS FIRST LEAVING THE EARTH
AND LANDING ON ANOTHER BODY IN--IN THE COSMOS.
AND TODAY, I SAY THAT YOU HAVE--
THIS GENERATION, THE KIDS OUT HERE IN THE AUDIENCE,
IN PARTICULAR THE STUDENTS, THE INTERNS--
IT'S YOUR GENERATION THAT HAS THIS INCREDIBLE PRIVILEGE
TO DEAL WITH THE CHALLENGE
OF PREVENTING EXTINCTION,
PREVENTING THE--THIS-- THESE ASTEROID IMPACTS,
WHICH ULTIMATELY CAN LEAD TO EXTINCTION
AND PREVENTING US FROM MOVING OUT INTO THE UNIVERSE.
SO I ALWAYS LIKE TO SHOW THIS STATEMENT
AT THE END, OKAY?
IT'S LIKELY THAT IF-- AND I UNDERLINE "IF"--
THERE IS A COMMUNITY OF SENTIENT LIFE
OUT THERE IN THE UNIVERSE
THAT ITS MEMBERS HAVE EACH FACED THIS CHALLENGE--
THAT IS THE CHALLENGE OF PREVENTING ASTEROID IMPACTS
ON THEIR HOME PLANET.
OTHERWISE THEY WOULDN'T HAVE MADE IT, OKAY?
THEY PASSED THAT CHALLENGE.
WE HUMANS NOW FACE THIS GREAT TEST OF ADMISSION
INTO THE LIFE OF THE COSMOS.
THIS IS YOUR CHALLENGE. WE DID APOLLO.
YOU DO THIS, PLEASE. THANKS.
[applause]
- SO WE HAVE A-- TIME FOR A FEW QUESTIONS.
IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION, PLEASE RAISE YOUR HAND,
WAIT FOR THE MICROPHONE,
AND STAND UP AND ASK YOUR QUESTION.
- SO TODAY'S JULY 17, 2014.
WE LOOK UP ON OUR TEL-- [microphone feedback]
AT OUR TELESCOPE AND WE SEE SOMETHING COMING AT US.
HOW MUCH TIME DO WE HAVE TO REACT,
ACTUALLY GO THROUGH STEPS TWO AND THREE ON YOUR LIST?
- IF YOU LOOK UP--
NUMBER ONE,
YOU'RE NOT GONNA LOOK UP AND KNOW RIGHT AWAY
WHETHER SOMETHING IS QUOTE: "COMING AT US."
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY,
VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT YOU CAN LOOK AND SEE ONE
THAT'S JUST ABOUT TO HIT,
BUT THAT WOULD BE A TOTAL MIRACLE TO DO THAT.
YOU--YOU LOOK UP AND YOU FIND THINGS MOVING
IN THE SKY--
ASTEROIDS MOVING AGAINST THE STAR BACKGROUND.
YOU--YOU TRACK THEM.
YOU PLOT THEIR ORBIT, AND YOU PROJECT 100 YEARS AHEAD OF TIME,
AND YOU SAY, "IN THAT 100 YEARS,
IS THERE GOING TO BE AN INTERSECTION?"
YOU DON'T--
THERE--THERE'S NO SENSE THAT, "IT'S COMING, DUCK."
I MEAN, THAT'S NOT THE DEAL.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BEING ABLE--
THE NICE THING ABOUT ASTEROIDS OR ANYTHING IN SPACE,
AS ALL OF YOU KNOW HERE, IS THAT THEY'RE PREDICTABLE.
THEY BEHAVE IN ORDERLY WAYS, NEWTON'S LAWS AND ALL OF THAT.
A FEW OTHER THINGS, LIKE RELATIVITY,
BUT YOU KNOW, WE CAN PREDICT
WHERE SOMETHING IS GOING TO BE IN SPACE
MANY, MANY YEARS AHEAD OF TIME.
AND TO DO OUR DEFLECTION,
WE NEED SOMETHING LIKE 15 OR 20 YEARS.
SO GENERALLY SPEAKING, YOU'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT
FINDING SOMETHING AT THE LAST MINUTE.
ALTHOUGH, THAT IS A VERY--
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF DOING THAT AT FAIRLY LOW COST,
BUT YOU'RE NOT--YOU'RE NOT GONNA BE DOING ANYTHING THERE
OTHER THAN, IN FACT, SAYING, "DUCK."
IF YOU SEE SOMETHING LITERALLY COMING AT YOU
ON FINAL APPROACH, WHAT I CALL FINAL APPROACH,
OR WHAT OTHER NON-FRIENDS CALL THE DEATH PLUNGE...
[laughter]
GENERALLY SPEAKING, YOU HAVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
TWO DAYS AND MAYBE A MONTH
TO EVACUATE, THE SAME WAY YOU WOULD WITH A HURRICANE.
BUT WHAT WE WANT TO DO
IS TO BE ABLE TO DEFLECT AND PREVENT IMPACTS,
AND TO DO THAT, WE FIND THESE THINGS,
UNDERSTAND WHERE THEY--
WE INVENTORY THIS WHOLE ARRAY OF THINGS
KNOW THEIR ORBITS, AND WE KNOW 20 YEARS AHEAD OF TIME
WHETHER SOMETHING IS GOING TO HIT.
BUT WE HAVE TO FIND IT FIRST.
THAT'S WHY THE EARLY WARNING IS SO IMPORTANT.
I CAN SEE HANDS GOING UP BUT I DON'T KNOW WHO--
THERE'S THE MIC. OKAY. - HELLO.
YOU SHOWED US THAT IF YOU WERE ABLE TO DEFLECT AN ASTEROID
IT WOULD COME EITHER BEFORE OR AFTER EARTH BUT PRETTY CLOSE.
IS THERE A CONCERN OF IT COMING BACK AROUND AGAIN
AS IT MAKES ANOTHER ORBIT AROUND THE MOON IN THE FUTURE?
AND WOULD YOU HAVE TO DEFLECT IT EVERY SINGLE TIME AGAIN?
- YES.
I DON'T KNOW.
WE GOT THE LAPEL MIC ON? OKAY, THERE WE GO.
THE ANSWER IS YES.
WE MAKE A VERY, VERY SMALL CHANGE
IN THE SPEED--IN THE ORBIT OF THESE ASTEROIDS
IN ORDER TO MAKE THEM MISS THE EARTH.
SO THAT ASTEROID WILL STILL BE IN APPROXIMATELY THE SAME ORBIT,
AND IT MAY, 20, 50 YEARS, 100 YEARS, COME BACK.
THAT'S THE REASON WE WANT TO HAVE A PRECISE
END DEFLECTION CAPABILITY.
NOT JUST HIT IT AND MAKE IT MISS THE EARTH
BUT NOT KNOW WHERE IT'S GONNA GO.
WE WANT TO TRY TO PUT IT IN AN ORBIT,
A PRECISE ORBIT, THAT WE'LL SAY,
"IT'S NOT GONNA BE A PROBLEM FOR ANOTHER 100 YEARS OR SOMETHING."
AND THERE WILL BE DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGY,
BETTER TECHNOLOGY.
IN THE END, WE WOULD BE ABLE TO, IN MY VIEW,
WE WILL BE ABLE TO, IN FACT,
SET UP A DEFLECTION IN SUCH A WAY
THAT, IN FACT, IT WILL GO SOMEWHERE NEAR VENUS--
CLOSE ENOUGH TO, SAY, VENUS OR MARS
ON ITS TRAJECTORY THAT
THAT PLANET WILL AFFECT IT GRAVITATIONALLY
AND IT WILL NO LONGER BE A PROBLEM.
IN OTHER WORDS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME
OF GETTING RID OF ASTEROIDS.
AND IN FACT, I WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONE WAY
WE'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO TELL, ULTIMATELY,
IF WE GET THE RIGHT KIND OF TELESCOPES AND THINGS,
WHETHER A PLANET MIGHT BE INHABITED IS TO SAY,
"ARE ALL THE ASTEROIDS IN THAT SOLAR SYSTEM
CLEARED OUT OF THAT PLANET'S PATH?"
YOU KNOW, WHO--THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN BY ACCIDENT, YOU KNOW?
THAT MAY BE A GOOD INDICATOR OF LIFE, INTELLIGENT LIFE.
RESPONSIBLE LIFE. [laughter]
- SO WHEN YOU TALKED ABOUT DEFLECTION,
YOU ONLY MENTIONED DEFLECTION MAKING IT FASTER
OR MAKING IT SLOWER.
BUT COULD YOU POSSIBLY DEFLECT IT IN OTHER WAYS,
LIKE, I DON'T KNOW, ANY OF THE SPATIAL DIRECTIONS REALLY?
- THE ANSWER TO THAT IS YES, YOU CAN DO THAT,
BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY INEFFECTIVE.
IF--WE CAN TALK ABOUT THAT LATER--
BUT IF YOU DRAW THE VECTOR--I'M SURE YOU'RE A VECTOR PERSON--
SO IF YOU DRAW THE VELOCITY VECTOR
OF ONE OF THESE THINGS,
AND YOU CHANGE ITS LENGTH,
IN OTHER WORDS, CHANGE THE VELOCITY,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VELOCITY,
YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A CUMULATIVE EFFECT.
IT'S GONNA MAKE THE--THE ORBIT A LITTLE BIT LARGER
AND IT TAKES THE-- OR SMALLER--
AND IT TAKES THE ASTEROID LONGER TO GET AROUND
OR A LITTLE BIT LESS TIME TO GET AROUND.
IT MAY CHANGE THE ORBITAL PERIOD
BY ONLY A MATTER OF A COUPLE OF MINUTES, OKAY?
BUT EACH TIME IT GOES AROUND, THAT ADDS UP--
TWO MINUTES, FOUR MINUTES, SIX, EIGHT, TEN, ET CETERA.
SO YOU MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE ARRIVAL TIME.
IF YOU CHANGE THE POINT-- THE DIRECTION OF THE VELOCITY--
OF THE VECTOR, YOU DO NOTHING TO THE ARRIVAL TIME.
IT'S GONNA HIT 5 MILES FROM WHERE IT WOULD HAVE HIT
BEFORE YOU DID THAT.
SO CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THE VECTOR--
THE VELOCITY VECTOR IS NOT USEFUL.
YOU CAN ONLY AFFECT A DEFLECTION
BY CHANGING THE LENGTH OF THE VECTOR.
OKAY, YES.
- HELLO.
HELLO. - THERE WE GO.
- [indistinct]
[laughter] - I THINK YOU SWITCHED IT OFF.
- ANYWAY, THERE WE GO.
HI, MY NAME'S GREG MORRISSEY, AND I JUST TRANSITIONED
FROM MARSHALL SPACE FLIGHT CENTER HERE TO AMES
AND HAD A CHANCE TO HEAR YOU TESTIFY
TWO OR THREE YEARS AGO BEFORE CONGRESS
ON SUPPORT OF THE PRESIDENT'S PLAN FOR COMMERCIAL SPACE
AS NEIL ARMSTRONG OPPOSED THAT PLAN,
AND I WAS HONORED TO BE IN THAT HEARING ROOM AT THAT TIME.
THAT TO SAY,
AS YOU'VE OBSERVED NASA FUNDING OVER THE YEARS,
AND AS YOU'VE HAD A CHANCE TO SPEAK TO OUR LEGISLATORS
AND LEADERS,
HOW DO YOU SEE NASA'S BUDGET NOW AND GOING FORWARD
TO FUND THE THINGS THAT YOU SEE
AND YOU'VE CONVINCINGLY PORTRAYED AS VERY IMPORTANT
TO US AS A NATION
AND AS A WORLDWIDE CONCERN?
- ALL RIGHT, WELL, I'M GOING TO EXTRAPOLATE A LITTLE BIT
ON YOUR QUESTION.
I'M GOING TO ASSUME THAT WHAT YOU'RE REALLY ASKING
IS HOW DO I SEE FUNDING FOR SOMETHING--
FOR PLANETARY DEFENSE IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER THINGS...
- YES. - IN THE FUTURE?
YOU KNOW, WE--WE HAVE-- ED AND I AND PETE AND OTHERS
HAVE WORKED ON THIS ISSUE
ON NASA AND ON THE CONGRESS
FOR A DECADE AND A HALF, TWO DECADES.
AND WHILE PEOPLE ALWAYS, ONCE THEY UNDERSTAND IT...
UNDERSTAND THERE'S A REALITY TO IT
AND THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT IT,
MOST OF THE CONGRESS HAS NO CLUE
OF WHAT AN ASTEROID IS OR THAT THEY IMPACT.
THEY GOT EXCITED ABOUT THE ONE THAT HIT IN RUSSIA.
AND IT LASTED FOR ABOUT A WEEK OR SOMETHING,
TWO WEEKS.
COMPARED WITH THE POTHOLES IN THE ROAD,
ASTEROIDS IMPACTING 20 OR 30 OR 40 YEARS FROM NOW
DON'T AMOUNT TO A HILL OF BEANS
AS FAR AS MOST PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED.
AND SO WHILE EVERYBODY WHO REALLY UNDERSTANDS THIS ISSUE
UNDERSTANDS IT IS, NUMBER ONE, A HUGE ISSUE,
BECAUSE ULTIMATELY, VERY SELDOM,
BUT AT THE LARGEST END, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT EXTINCTION,
THE END OF THE WHOLE EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS
HERE ON THIS PLANET.
AND IT DOESN'T COST MUCH TO DO IT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POTHOLES IN THE ROAD--
I'M GONNA GET LETTERS FROM MY CONSTITUENTS NEXT WEEK
ABOUT THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER THING--
IMMIGRATION, YOU NAME IT.
SO THIS HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH PRIORITY
FOR THE CONGRESS, AND FRANKLY,
IT HAS NOT BEEN A HIGH PRIORITY FOR NASA EITHER,
PARTLY BECAUSE NASA DOES NOT,
AND HAS NEVER GOTTEN CLEAR RESPONSIBILITY
FROM THE CONGRESS OR THE PRESIDENT
FOR THIS ISSUE, FOR PLANETARY--
FOR PROTECTING THE EARTH FROM ASTEROID IMPACTS.
AND BECAUSE THAT AUTHORITY,
THAT RESPONSIBILITY HAS NEVER BEEN NASA'S,
THEY DON'T HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO ASK FOR THE MONEY TO DO IT.
SO NASA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SPACE SCIENCE
AND FOR EXPLORATION.
AND ANY MONEY THAT GOES OUT OF NASA'S BUDGET FOR THIS
COMES OUT OF THE POCKET OF GRADUATE STUDENTS
WHO ARE DOING RESEARCH ON SPACE SCIENCE
OR WHATEVER.
SO THE IRONY IS THAT THIS IS ONLY SURVIVAL.
WHO CARES, RIGHT?
[laughter] - WELL, WE CARE.
WE FEEL THAT YOU CARE,
BECAUSE THE TIME HORIZON ON YOUR CONCERNS
IS PERHAPS YOUR CHILDREN OR YOUR GRANDCHILDREN'S LIVES.
THE TIME HORIZON FOR CORPORATE WORLD
IS MAYBE THE NEXT QUARTER.
FOR THE GOVERNMENT WORLD, IT MAY BE THE NEXT ELECTION.
YOU KNOW, WE'RE TALKING 2, 4, 6, 12 YEARS.
THIS IS A LONG TIME. THIS IS SURVIVAL.
SO WE HAVE GONE TO THE PUBLIC WITH B612
AND SAYING, "OKAY, THIS MEETS YOUR TIME HORIZON FOR VALUES.
"THIS IS WHAT YOU CARE ABOUT-- SURVIVAL,
"THE CONTINUATION OF EVOLUTION.
AND YOUR OWN FAMILIES, FOR THAT MATTER."
OKAY.
LAST ONE, YEAH.
- IT'S BEEN 45 YEARS SINCE YOU FLEW IN SPACE.
LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF HUMAN SPACE TRAVEL,
IN THOSE 45 YEARS, HAVE YOU NOTICED
ANY PHYSIOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON YOURSELF
AS A RESULT OF THAT.. - OH, YEAH
I'VE GOTTEN A LOT WISER. - SPACE?
[laughter]
- [laughs]
[applause]
NO. NO.
BUT, YOU KNOW, AT SOME LEVEL OF DETAIL,
I'M SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME EFFECTS.
AND OP-- THE EFFECT ON VISION
APPEARS TO BE SOMETHING REAL
AND SYSTEMIC IN SPACE FLIGHT.
YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE BONE LOSS, CALCIUM LOSS,
AND REDUCES THE DENSITY OF YOUR BONES, BUT IT COMES BACK.
YOU KNOW, THERE ARE SOME LONG-TERM EFFECTS
BUT NONE OF THEM THAT REALLY ARE SIGNIFICANT
COMPARED WITH THE DRINK YOU'LL HAVE THIS AFTERNOON.
[laughter] I THINK.
OKAY, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
[applause]
- AND AGAIN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
- THANK YOU.
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